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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FURTHER SLIDE TO US$ 40.62 PMT; DECLINE 5.34 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and slightly dropped week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined ...
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS STILL SLIDING; Q2'16 DELIVERY LOST AROUND 6 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 gain week over week but declined month over month.
The 4Q swap was dow ...
Monday, 31 August 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.85 per MT (-4.23%) month over month to US$ 41.87 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 31 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ENDS DOWN MORE THAN 4 PERCENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.91 (3.78%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 30 August 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET UNDOUBTEDLY REMAINS WEAK & VOLATILE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI slipped further down this week, moving closer to 900 level. This week’s BDI falls 9.15 pct and closed at 903 points. Wh ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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