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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FURTHER SLIDE TO US$ 40.62 PMT; DECLINE 5.34 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and slightly dropped week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined ...
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS STILL SLIDING; Q2'16 DELIVERY LOST AROUND 6 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 gain week over week but declined month over month.
The 4Q swap was dow ...
Monday, 31 August 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.85 per MT (-4.23%) month over month to US$ 41.87 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 31 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ENDS DOWN MORE THAN 4 PERCENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.91 (3.78%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 30 August 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET UNDOUBTEDLY REMAINS WEAK & VOLATILE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI slipped further down this week, moving closer to 900 level. This week’s BDI falls 9.15 pct and closed at 903 points. Wh ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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