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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FURTHER SLIDE TO US$ 40.62 PMT; DECLINE 5.34 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and slightly dropped week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined ...
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS STILL SLIDING; Q2'16 DELIVERY LOST AROUND 6 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 gain week over week but declined month over month.
The 4Q swap was dow ...
Monday, 31 August 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.85 per MT (-4.23%) month over month to US$ 41.87 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 31 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ENDS DOWN MORE THAN 4 PERCENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.91 (3.78%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 30 August 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET UNDOUBTEDLY REMAINS WEAK & VOLATILE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI slipped further down this week, moving closer to 900 level. This week’s BDI falls 9.15 pct and closed at 903 points. Wh ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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