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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 23 September 15
INDONESIA: NEW REGULATION APPLIES FINAL INCOME TAX TO MINERAL AND COAL SALES - FLORENCE GRACIA SANTOSO
To increase state revenue from the mining sector, the Government of Indonesia has imposed a new final income tax on any sale of mineral and coal, a ...
Tuesday, 22 September 15
1Q16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 6.49 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 2.29 (-5.42%) per t ...
Tuesday, 22 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 21 September 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q2' 16 SWAP
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery increased $0.43 per ton (1.01%) month over month to US$ 42.95 per ton. The ...
Monday, 21 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 0.45 (0.90 %) per ton month over month.
A commodit ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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