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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 05 October 15
Q1 & Q2 2016 DELIVERY SWAPS DECLINED M-M AND W-W THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.36 per ton (0.85%) month over month to US$ 42.12 per ton. The ...
Monday, 05 October 15
Q1' 16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 48.05 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down US$ 0.47 (0.96 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 05 October 15
SMALL DECLINE IN 2014 SHIP OPERATING COSTS - MOORE STEPHENS
Total annual operating costs in the shipping industry fell by an average of 0.8% in 2014. This compares with the 0.3% average fall in costs recorde ...
Sunday, 04 October 15
THE INDO-INDIA FREIGHT MARKET REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The BDI closed on Friday (2 Oct 2015) at 889 points, down by 54 points compared to previous Friday's closing ( 24 Sept 2015) of 9 ...
Friday, 02 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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