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Friday, 07 August 15
COAL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED, SUCCINCTLY AS "OVERSUPPLY MEETS SUBDUED DEMAND" - VDKI
 Coal Outlook 2015 – International
Regarding the outlook for global coal trading, two questions arise: firstly, “ whether the years of growth might now be over” and secondly “ whether the low prices have now bottomed out and are set to develop into a renewed upward trend” - German Coal Importer Association.
According to German Coal Importer Association, the forecasts for the global economy are showing an upward trend for 2015 with anticipated growth of 3.5% in gross domestic product globally, 3.1% in the USA and 1.3% in the Eurozone. As there is a correlation between demand for hard coal and economic growth, the conditions for an upward trend would appear to be present.
According to an estimate by the IEA, demand for coal in the years ahead is going to increase globally by an average of 2.1% per year. In absolute figures, that means an increase in demand from 8,247m tonnes in 2015 to 9,018m tonnes in 2019. The highest level of demand for additional quantities of coal will be shown by China with +661m tonnes and India with +251m tonnes in the five-year period. This means that by 2019, India will have overtaken the United States as a consumer of coal. The pace of growth will then slow down further – from annual growth of 5.3% in the period from 2005 to 2010 to a growth rate still at 2.1% in the period from 2015 to 2019. The lion's share of this growth will take place in the non-OECD states with growth rates of 3% per year.
The association further noted that, the reality is very close to the forecast: preliminary calculations by the VDKi for the first three months of 2015 indicate that the seaborne world market rose by just under 3% (8m tonnes) in comparison with the same period last year. Indonesia (+4m tonnes), Australia (+5m tonnes) and Colombia (+6m tonnes) increased their exports particularly strongly, while the USA (-5m tonnes) and Vietnam (-2m tonnes) cut back their exports. The other countries remained at their 2014 level.
Europe, on the other hand, has an oversupply of steam coal. This situation is accentuated by the further expansion of renewable, particularly in Germany and the UK, which will further reduce the peak use hours and therefore the demand for coal in the hard coal-fired power plants.
Despite these positive figures, the price developments can only be described, succinctly as "oversupply meets subdued demand".
According to presentation of VDKi, the development whereby a global oversupply of coal meets an insufficient increase in demand since 2011 continued in 2014. The pressure on prices consequently persisted in 2014 as well. In the period from January 2014 until today alone (10.7.2015), the prices for steam coal FOB Colombia declined from 72 US$/t to 52 US$/t, i.e. by approximately 30%.
Demand for steam coal in the Atlantic region has likewise remained rather weak between January and the present day. Accordingly, the further development of the price for steam coal will depend largely on the development of the Asian markets in particular, which in turn depend on the needs of China and India. Our research indicates that demand has fallen most markedly in China, while it has increased modestly in India.
All in all, we do not expect to see a significant increase in coal prices in the near future, German Coal Importer Association concluded in its presentation.
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Friday, 31 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP 3.6% FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 25
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.8 million shor ...
Friday, 31 July 15
CHINA'S NEW OIL IMPORT RULES HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON STATUS QUO - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says that China's looser criteria for crude oil import rights are a positive but modest step towards encouraging private-sector p ...
Thursday, 30 July 15
EFFECTS OF THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET CRISIS - INTERMODAL
All evidence is currently signaling that the Chinese stock market will be the newest hurdle for the global economy. With the world's second lar ...
Wednesday, 29 July 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and gains week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was decl ...
Wednesday, 29 July 15
Q4' 15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINE 4.41% TO $56.52 PMT
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- The University of Queensland
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- MS Steel International - UAE
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