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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 June 15
PANAMAX RATE AVERAGED $22.82 PMT IN THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF JUNE FOR THE GRAIN ROUTE FROM SANTOS, BRAZIL, TO QINGDAO, CHINA - INTERMODAL
This year, Brazil will be exporting a record 96 million tons of soybean crop and starting in August the country will begin shipping a second corn c ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
MERS: POTENTIAL CHARTERPARTY IMPLICATIONS - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
South Korea's current outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) has been the focus of much international at ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
Q3 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP PRICE DOWN 50 CENTS OVER PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month but declined week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was clim ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: PRICES MOVED UP ON THE WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 1.70 ...
Monday, 15 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP: Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED 1.14% LOWER THAN Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 1.10 per MT (2.47%) month over month to US$ 45.67 per mt. The swap ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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