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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 July 15
ANY FUTURE IRAN OIL DEAL WILL BOOST SUPPLY FUNDAMENTALS WITH TANKER OWNERS HOPING FROM TEHRAN TO QUICKLY BOOST ITS PRODUCTION
With the Greek “Euro-drama” apparently over, at least for now, Iran’s oil deal still remains elusive, with any potential agreemen ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS MAINTAIN OVERALL NEGATIVE TONE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.02 per MT (-2.23%) month over month to US$ 44.68 per mt. The swap ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.47 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Monday, 13 July 15
THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SOAR 23 PER CENT TO 24.08 MILLION TONNES AT 12 MAJOR INDIAN PORTS
Import of thermal coal jumped 23 per cent to 24.08 million tonnes at 12 major ports in the first quarter of the fiscal, even as the government cont ...
Monday, 13 July 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED ON A POSITIVE TONE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Despite Greece crisis and turmoil in the stock market across the world , the freight market overall was firm and up in all segments t ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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