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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FURTHER SLIDE TO US$ 40.62 PMT; DECLINE 5.34 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and slightly dropped week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined ...
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS STILL SLIDING; Q2'16 DELIVERY LOST AROUND 6 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 gain week over week but declined month over month.
The 4Q swap was dow ...
Monday, 31 August 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.85 per MT (-4.23%) month over month to US$ 41.87 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 31 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ENDS DOWN MORE THAN 4 PERCENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.91 (3.78%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 30 August 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET UNDOUBTEDLY REMAINS WEAK & VOLATILE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI slipped further down this week, moving closer to 900 level. This week’s BDI falls 9.15 pct and closed at 903 points. Wh ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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