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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 September 15
Q2'16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DIP TO $ 51.10 PER TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR 4Q' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $42.71 PER TON ON 11 SEPT, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.94 per MT (-2.15%) month over month to US$ 42.71 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 14 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED $1.80 PMT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.62 (3.21 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 14 September 15
MOODY'S LOWERS COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON MACRO, INDUSTRY FACTORS
COALspot.com: Moody's Investors Service has lowered its base metal price assumptions for 2015-17 as slowing growth in China, lower oil prices, ...
Sunday, 13 September 15
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI decreased further by 6.51 per cent or 57 points since last Friday and closed at 818 on 11 September 2015 while the cape index ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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