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Wednesday, 15 July 15
ANY FUTURE IRAN OIL DEAL WILL BOOST SUPPLY FUNDAMENTALS WITH TANKER OWNERS HOPING FROM TEHRAN TO QUICKLY BOOST ITS PRODUCTION
With the Greek “Euro-drama” apparently over, at least for now, Iran’s oil deal still remains elusive, with any potential agreement now being delayed at least unitl the fourth quarter of the year. This weekend was another missed deadline to reach an agreement, just as the oil markets began to price in the prospect of more oil coming in. According to the latest report from shipbroker Gibson, whilst both sides appear willing to continue, the failure to seal a deal last night means that US lawmakers will have two months to scrutinise any proposal, opposed to just one month had the deal been signed last night. Therefore, it is unlikely that sanctions will be lifted before the fourth quarter.

However, as Gibson noted, “if sanctions are removed, Iran will understandably be keen to re-capture market share, notably in Europe and Asia. Exports of Iranian oil to OECD Europe peaked at just below 900,000 b/d in 2007, contrasted to 120,000 b/d in the first quarter of 2015. A similar trend has been observed in OECD Asia whereby imports have declined from 700,000 b/d to 270,000 b/d over the same period. Imports into OECD Asia since 2007 have gone almost exclusively to Japan and Korea. However, exports to China, which is not part of the OECD have followed an opposite trend. In 2007, Chinese imports of Iranian oil stood at 530,000 b/d and have risen to remain consistently above 1 million b/d since 2011, coinciding with the implementation of Western sanctions. Exports to India, another key market for Iran, have also been under pressure, shrinking to just 220,000 b/d for the year to date”, the London-based shipbroker said in its latest weekly report.

Gibson added that “Iran has made it clear that it will endeavour to return exports to pre sanction levels if the embargo is lifted. Whilst Tehran claims it could increase production immediately by 500,000 b/d and then another 500,000 b/d six months later, most market participants are more pessimistic. However, oil/condensate in floating storage, which Gibson estimates at approximately 42 million barrels, could be quickly released. With little indication that other OPEC members would be willing to cut production to accommodate additional Iranian barrels, the demand side developments for the crude tanker market would certainly be positive. Further support may also be found from the inherent symptoms of increasing production in an oversupplied market, notably with regards to difficulties in placing and discharging cargoes ashore”.

Of course, with more Iranian crude, comes the release of more Iranian tonnage. According to Gibson, “the Iranian fleet currently consists of 37 VLCCs (5.8% of the global VLCC fleet), 12 Suezmaxes and 5 Aframaxes, with most currently absent from the conventional tanker market. The Iranian fleet will need to re-establish compliance with international standards if it is to enter the mainstream spot markets. However, these vessels will continue to serve a purpose and are likely to get first refusal on any Iranian cargoes. Furthermore, our analysis of Iranian trading patterns identifies a number of operational inefficiencies (for example extreme slow steaming) which could be quickly rectified in response to higher demand. Therefore, the net effect is not only more ships, but also improved trading efficiency, bolstering the supply fundamentals”, said Gibson.

The shipbroker concluded its analysis by noting that “if sanctions are lifted, it may be that Iranian vessels return to the market before any significant increases in crude exports, which would prove immediately bearish for the sector. On this basis tanker owners would hope Tehran ramp up its production as quickly as possible in order to absorb this additional tonnage”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News


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