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Thursday, 09 July 15
CPP MARKET : POSITIVE IN THE SHORT TERM - GEORGE VASTARDIS
Intermodal LogoDespite the traditionally quieter summer period, the clean tanker market has so far experienced healthy activity especially East of Suez. Increased demand of clean products and increased refining capacity in the Middle East along with stronger global refining margins in Europe, have been boosting product trade to higher levels since the beginning of 2015.

Over the last couple of weeks, the MR market was not that active, which has resulted on softer rates. However, lack of prompt vessels along with some Charterers looking for LR1 tonnage in order to cover their MR cargoes in the MEG, started supporting rates. In brief we assess WCI/JAPAN basis 35kmt naphtha at W147.5-w150 and MEG/UKC jet fuel hovers at $ 1.8k levels, MEG/EAF basis 35kmt at w195 levels, cross MEG high300k-low400k and MEG/Red Sea firm at 900k levels respectively.

Meanwhile the Atlantic slowed down and since last week a surplus of tonnage eventually pushed rates about 10-15 points down across the board due to lack of demand. We assess USG/Europe basis 38kmt at w105 levels, Cont/T-A at w175-w180 levels basis 37kmt and Cont/WAF at w195 respectively. On the other hand, cross UKC Handies remained stable at w205 basis 30kmt. Moving on to the MED, we experience more activity, which is driving rates for cross MED up to w250-260 levels due to tight tonnage lists and allows Owners to push for more.

Owners believe that MR market will further firm up or at least will stay sta-ble, taking under consideration long T/C contracts during the past months, ranging from $17k to mid-high18k levels for 6mos, 1 year or more.

The LR market has witnessed signs of increased activity East of Suez and in the Far East accordingly, which drove the market to remarkable higher levels especially on the LR2 segments. MEG/Japan reached w140 levels basis 75kmt naphtha, MEG/UKC jet fuels reached at $ 3.3m levels and due to tight tonnage we even noticed WAF ballasters sailing towards the MEG in order take advantage of the stronger market there. On the other hand the western LR2 market is also witnessing healthy demand on naphtha from West to East, assessing at $ 3.2m levels loading from UKC to Japan. Unsurprisingly the Far East backhaul cargoes for LR2 jumped to 700k levels for the ex-Korea to Singapore area and to mid-high600k levels for the LR1 respectively.

Despite the semi-tight LR1 tonnage list in the MEG, somehow owners held back expecting a boost on rates as a spillover from the LR2 rally, which eventually was the case. We noticed a progressively increase of about 5 to 10 points basis 55k naphtha for MEG/Japan at w155-160 levels, while jet deliveries to UKC basis 60kmt at 2.7m levels and Korea/UKC assessed at 2.85m respectively.

Over in the West, we also noticed a slower demand over the last week and eventually rates moved down to w140-145 levels for UKC to WAF basis 60kmt and the traditional 60kmt USG to Europe to around w97.5 levels respectively. As we expect more ballasters from USWC or USAC to be attracted to the MEG, it seems that more lucrative rates will be required for cargoes with eastern destination.

In conclusion, the CPP market seems positive in the short term, with expected ups and downs depending on tonnage supply and cargo demand. Taking also under consideration the limited fleet growth for 2015 and the still unresolved situation in both Libya and Iran, it seems that the following few months, healthy rates will keep prevailing in the market.
By George Vastardis
Tanker Chartering Broker


Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

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