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Wednesday, 01 July 15
BEIJING HAS OFFICIALLY EXTENDED BY TWO YEARS ITS SUBSIDY PROGRAM TO SUPPORT LOCAL SHIPPING COMPANIES IN SCRAPPING THEIR OLD TONNAGE - INTERMODAL
IntermodalLast week, Beijing has officially extended by two years its subsidy program to support local shipping companies in scrapping their old tonnage in what we hope proves to be a bold move forward to reducing the largest plague of the dry bulk market; overcapacity. Previous measures introduced in 2013 were largely targeted at replacing older tonnage with newer, environment-friendly technologies and the Chinese financial system gave extra incentives through aggressive financial backing to local and international owners. The result is well-known to everyone contributing to a heavy backlog of orders that has sent the freight market spiraling downwards since 2H 2014.

Assuming that the stressed out shipping finance lines do not allow this subsidy to roll-over to new orders, we believe that the joint effect of these actions could be the best news the dry bulk industry has received in months…

Since the beginning of 2015 we have been regularly commenting on the healthy scrap activity experienced in the Capesize sector. However, little progress has been made on smaller sizes and sub-continent scrapyards have shown little appetite for Handies, Handymaxes and even Panamaxes. Looking at the fleet concentration of vintage tonnage (over 15 years of age) one has to recognize two basic facts; Chinese owners are the main Buyer of such vessels and they own a growing percentage of that fleet.

So the impact of the announced measures is that we expect a large number of “overage” vessels controlled by Chinese companies to exit the market and be replaced by the new deliveries that are presently under order.

What does this mean for asset values of such ships in the short-term? Scrap values will go up and sub-continent scrap buyers will have to compete due to reduced supply of tonnage hitting its shores? or second hand values of vessels close to the 15 year mark will fast approach scrap levels (albeit higher ones)? Probably hard to give a definite answer now since all will depend on freight rates development over the next period and of course the net figure of vessels being delivered minus the ones going to demo over the next 3-6 months.

However, one cannot but recognize the largely positive medium-term effect this move would have on Handy, Handymax and Panamax sector and the -admittedly small- net effect upon the Capesize fleet.

p.s. One of the toughest broker’s insights we had yet to write… It is a time for pragmatism and clear, logical thinking to prevail so that Greece and the Eurozone will hand-in-hand overcome the hardships we face today for the common good of all its citizens. We need to find the strength to focus on the things that bring us together rather than the ones that separate us. We sincerely hope the financial crisis that our country is facing will end soon.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker

Compiled by:

Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.


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Friday, 10 July 15
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