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Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all wish to forget. The BDI was fluctuating around its lowest point ever recorded for the entire first half. The last two weeks though have given a much needed lift to the market, which nonetheless will need further momentum to make some actual difference in both sentiment and returns. Whether this momentum will be found in order to stabilize market rates at least above OPEX, is something that is hard to predict. However, and since we are coming out of the "dusk" of H1 and slowly moving towards the "dawn" of H2, a recap in titles could be of interest to our readers.
Starting with Capers, levels are currently at the highest point since January. With the Chinese iron ore inventories at their lowest point since November 2013 and with the price of iron ore at slightly above $60/ton, a mild recovery in terms of traded volume is expected. On the supply side, heavy demolition activity in H1 (more than 10mill dwt have been demolished since the beginning of the year) together with slippage, cancellation and conversions of dry bulk orders to tankers or containers, is restricting the growth of an already oversupplied market. On the other hand, China’s decision to support Vale’s iron ore expansion plan, may lead to an increase in iron ore supply. One would think that such decision would help the market recover on the back of tonne miles increase, however since most of Vale's transported iron ore will be shipped in Valemax ships the positive effect on rates will be hard to materialize.
On the Panamaxes, although rates have not seen today's levels since December 2014, the outlook remains negative as demand for coal is diminishing. Environmental concerns in many nations and especially in China have pushed towards usage of cleaner resources of energy. As a result, coal imports have declined significantly YoY and a revival is hard to be expected despite the fact that other big economies like India are increasing demand but doing so in a more moderated level. On the other hand, some support could be founded in the grain market on the back of the increased production of exporting countries like US, Canada and Brazil.
On the smaller sizes, Supramaxes have found support in the Atlantic thanks to grains and petcoke cargoes. India's high petcoke imports from the US have helped increase tonne miles in the sector, while in the Pacific, rates are also correcting upwards on the back of bauxite and nickel ore imports, with China being behind most of the latter. Handysizes are also trying to take advantage of the increase of shipments of both grains and other minor bulk commodities, however the impact on freights is moderate as charterers prefer to use bigger vessels for the transportation of commodities, especially for the Transatlantic trade.
In general, the market is being in doldrums and nothing exciting should be expected during the next couple of months, some spikes could give glimpses of hope. However, the next big thing will most probably be the fourth quarter of this year, a time when the market is traditionally advancing. What will happen this year remains to be seen with great interest. Therefore from the “dusk” of H1 till the “dawn” of the H2 nothing really crazy should be expected, apart maybe from some humans turning into vampires somewhere in a bar close to the Mexican borders...
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.18 (2.27%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 19 July 15
BDI GAINED AND CROSSED 1000 MARK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI gained and crossed 1000 mark after many months this Friday. The BDI was up almost 20 pct and closed 1048 points on 17 July 20 ...
Saturday, 18 July 15
INTERVIEW : FRANZ ESCALANTE, CHIEF OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS, MINERA CHINALCO, PERU
We are interested in the technology of Autonomous trucks, the new-generation trucks are not remote controlled, they are truly autonomous - Franz Es ...
Friday, 17 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. INCREASES SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 11
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.4 million short ...
Friday, 17 July 15
INDONESIAN POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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