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Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all wish to forget. The BDI was fluctuating around its lowest point ever recorded for the entire first half. The last two weeks though have given a much needed lift to the market, which nonetheless will need further momentum to make some actual difference in both sentiment and returns. Whether this momentum will be found in order to stabilize market rates at least above OPEX, is something that is hard to predict. However, and since we are coming out of the "dusk" of H1 and slowly moving towards the "dawn" of H2, a recap in titles could be of interest to our readers.
Starting with Capers, levels are currently at the highest point since January. With the Chinese iron ore inventories at their lowest point since November 2013 and with the price of iron ore at slightly above $60/ton, a mild recovery in terms of traded volume is expected. On the supply side, heavy demolition activity in H1 (more than 10mill dwt have been demolished since the beginning of the year) together with slippage, cancellation and conversions of dry bulk orders to tankers or containers, is restricting the growth of an already oversupplied market. On the other hand, China’s decision to support Vale’s iron ore expansion plan, may lead to an increase in iron ore supply. One would think that such decision would help the market recover on the back of tonne miles increase, however since most of Vale's transported iron ore will be shipped in Valemax ships the positive effect on rates will be hard to materialize.
On the Panamaxes, although rates have not seen today's levels since December 2014, the outlook remains negative as demand for coal is diminishing. Environmental concerns in many nations and especially in China have pushed towards usage of cleaner resources of energy. As a result, coal imports have declined significantly YoY and a revival is hard to be expected despite the fact that other big economies like India are increasing demand but doing so in a more moderated level. On the other hand, some support could be founded in the grain market on the back of the increased production of exporting countries like US, Canada and Brazil.
On the smaller sizes, Supramaxes have found support in the Atlantic thanks to grains and petcoke cargoes. India's high petcoke imports from the US have helped increase tonne miles in the sector, while in the Pacific, rates are also correcting upwards on the back of bauxite and nickel ore imports, with China being behind most of the latter. Handysizes are also trying to take advantage of the increase of shipments of both grains and other minor bulk commodities, however the impact on freights is moderate as charterers prefer to use bigger vessels for the transportation of commodities, especially for the Transatlantic trade.
In general, the market is being in doldrums and nothing exciting should be expected during the next couple of months, some spikes could give glimpses of hope. However, the next big thing will most probably be the fourth quarter of this year, a time when the market is traditionally advancing. What will happen this year remains to be seen with great interest. Therefore from the “dusk” of H1 till the “dawn” of the H2 nothing really crazy should be expected, apart maybe from some humans turning into vampires somewhere in a bar close to the Mexican borders...
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 September 15
Q2'16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DIP TO $ 51.10 PER TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR 4Q' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $42.71 PER TON ON 11 SEPT, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.94 per MT (-2.15%) month over month to US$ 42.71 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 14 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED $1.80 PMT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.62 (3.21 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 14 September 15
MOODY'S LOWERS COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON MACRO, INDUSTRY FACTORS
COALspot.com: Moody's Investors Service has lowered its base metal price assumptions for 2015-17 as slowing growth in China, lower oil prices, ...
Sunday, 13 September 15
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI decreased further by 6.51 per cent or 57 points since last Friday and closed at 818 on 11 September 2015 while the cape index ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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