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Wednesday, 17 June 15
PANAMAX RATE AVERAGED $22.82 PMT IN THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF JUNE FOR THE GRAIN ROUTE FROM SANTOS, BRAZIL, TO QINGDAO, CHINA - INTERMODAL
 This year, Brazil will be exporting a record 96 million tons of soybean crop and starting in August the country will begin shipping a second corn crop of approximately 51.4 million tons, also a record. The country is the world’s no. 2 exporter of both commodities, even though their logistics system is still running at a limit.
Unlike other privately controlled railways and private-use terminals for iron ore, soybean exporters have to use public roads to reach publicly managed ports, primarily Santos and Paranagua. Both still often experience bottlenecks, with long lines of trucks and ships, a common feature during the peak harvest months of April, May and June. This is without even taking into account the frequent worker strikes. But this year heavy rains in ports such as Paranagua, may also be more frequent due to the El Nino climate phenomenon and could temporarily halt loadings, jeopardizing the already heavy shipping schedules.
Nevertheless, the increased export activity can, in general, only be a good sign, even though for the time being, it is still not having a significant positive impact on freight rates for Panamaxes. The Panamax rate averaged $22.82 per metric ton in the first 10 days of June for the grain route from Santos, Brazil, to Qingdao, China, basis 60,000 metric tons, and when we look back at last’s year June average for the whole month, we see a rate of $31.10 per metric ton. This 26% drop is largely down to the difference in bunker prices, which went through a dramatic fall in recent months.
It is evident, however, that there is currently an increase in the demand for such ships in the region due to continuing shortage of vessels able to do East Coast South America (ECSA) for late June - early July dates. Fixtures basis APS delivery ECSA or basis delivery passing the Cape of Good Hope, are currently being signed at higher levels than those at the beginning of the month.
Another positive fact is that the safrinha corn crop in the second largest producing state of Parana, Brazil is also expected to do very well this year. Farmers in Parana, Brazil have harvested approximately 10% of the 1.89 million hectares of safrinha corn so far and corn yields are also exceeding expectations. The state of Mato Grosso is the largest safrinha corn producing state in Brazil and good weather during the entire growing season is resulting in increasing production estimates. In their latest report, the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics increased both the safrinha corn acreage and the yield projections for the 2015 crop.
On the other side of the world, China, the world's largest importer of soybeans is projected to import 77.5 million metric tons of soybeans this year, which is around 4 million metric tons more than in the 2014-15 season. This is still reflecting a very strong demand, which is supported by a combination of policy constraints and stagnating yields for domestic soy production in China. This is expected to decline during 2015-2016 down to approximately 11.7 million metric tons. That shows us how important the commodity is. Basically it’s the only major agricultural crop in which China is dependent on imports for the Lion’s share of its supply.
Christopher Thomas Whitty
Marketing Manager Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.36 per MT (0.80%) month over month. The swap was closed at US$ ...
Monday, 01 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-W, M-M; Q1'16 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.15 (2.26%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a f ...
Sunday, 31 May 15
CAPE AND PANAMAX SEGMENTS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: The BDI was up about 0.5 pct week on week and closed at 589 points while the cape index was fell 0.73 pct and closed at 810 po ...
Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodi ...
Friday, 29 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. ALMOST FLAT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million short ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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