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Wednesday, 10 June 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
Intermodal logoAs we go through the end of the 2nd quarter of the year it is evident that the tanker shipping markets have been rewarding and definitely been showing a lot more promise compared to other sectors. Even now that new deliveries are hitting the water fast, the market has been able to absorb the extra tonnage either in long term contracts or in the spot market. The edible oil market has also had its stake on that by employing a handful of tonnage. In fact, lately it has been a lot livelier both out of S. America and out of SE Asia.

As far as the palm oil regional market is concerned, the 2nd quarter of the year has offered much more enquiry than the first. This is to point out that the implementation of 0% export tax on Malaysian crude palm oil in May and June have had a positive impact as buyers have been taking advantage of the tax-free cargoes out of the country boosting the shipments in both India and Europe. At the time of writing the regional market remains steady on healthy levels with a slight cooling-off. Most of second half June enquiries are already covered, while July quotes are already in the market. It remains to be seen if July will follow the same strong trend, while Indonesian export taxes are expected to be reinstated back in August. On the long-haul trade now, the youngest ECO-MR Ships are traded between 22,000 USD - 23,000 USD pd , while older tonnage can earn as much as 20,000 USD pd for a trip to MED,UKC or USA which lasts 45-120 days. The critical factor for owners profit margin though, namely the 380 bunker price -now at abt 355USD/pt - has recently shown an overall upward trend causing concerns.

In the last month we have seen a very healthy number of vessels fixed for vegetable oils out of South America and an even greater figure of soya-bean oil crop, climbing to around 500.000t. While we expected the increased production to accommodate more ships on the trade, strikes and groundings have resulted in big line-ups. As such, it seems that it will take more time for the current output to be deployed, while we expect more cargoes in the coming weeks. Given the current activity along with a firm CPP mkt in the Atlantic basket, freight rates have levelled at around 44-45 USD/pmt basis 2/2 ports, while rates for CIQ positions destined to CHINA are in the 50s for 40,000mtons of cargo. Probably though, the best earners are the  Iran candidates, which have also been very much in the frame during last month, earning USD low-mid 70s bss 30,000mtons. Going forward, rates will once again be dictated by the western CPP market and how it will move during the usually slower summer months.

Lastly, Black Sea exports have seen little change in export volumes the last month, with a relatively low number of fixtures. It is evident that the difference amongst the Sunflower oil and the 120 USD cheaper South American soya-bean oil has shifted importer’s demand to the most favorable origin. The current shift is expected to be greater the coming weeks as soya-bean oil prices are expected to sustain their competitive selling price. Only a few larger stems of up to 30,000mtons looking at India and Iran have drawn some attention, while smaller cargoes of 6-7,000mtons have given little excitement with charterers choosing among several loaders.

It is worth noting that trade volumes are expected to further increase in the next few years, primarily driven by higher consumption of edible oils in emerging economies, in particular China and India. While palm oil exports represents approximately two thirds of global edible oil exports, vegetable oil seaborne trade volumes have been growing remarkably. The good part for the our industry is that exporters rely primarily on shipping for exporting and total trade figures are fairly translated in actual seaborne trade figures.
By Stelios Kollintzas
Specialized Products Chartering

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

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