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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 September 15
LOW DEMAND PUSH COAL SWAP DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and gain week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.77 (-4.17%) ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Having experienced, as it was much anticipated, a poor 1st half combined with negative forecasts, summer, in sharp contrast, proved to be more hope ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES LED A DECLINE IN INDONESIAN COAL PRODUCTION
COALspot.com: Slower growth in world coal demand particularly China and lower international coal prices have led to a decline in Indonesian coal pr ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
HIGHER TAXES COULD LEAD GREEK SHIP OWNERS OUT OF THE COUNTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
A potential taxation overhaul of the shipping industry in Hellas, which could see the loss of particular tax benefits for ship owners, could lead t ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
WORLD SEABORNE TRADE: ENTERING INTO A ROLE REVERSAL? - CLARKSONS
Over the past decade, world seaborne trade growth has been dominated by dry bulk and container trade. However, developments in the global economy t ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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