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Wednesday, 20 May 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS
 Since Early October 2014 the tanker market has been experiencing a very positive momentum and has continued its strong performance so far in 2015. Freight rates in the wet tanker market remained solidly firm and somewhat increasing over the past weeks.
The VLCC TD3 daily is today in excess of $80,000/day, reaching 5 year highs and has improved phenomenally on a y-on-y comparison as around this time last year it was averaging at -$3,000/day. Cargo volumes are at elevated levels with oil production in Saudi Arabia holding at record highs and more crude cargo exports coming out of Iraq’s Basrah. Market expectation is that there is will be an upward trend in VLCC rates in June and it is worth noting that nearly 1 out of 3 VLCC’s taken on T/C during 2015 is being used for storage mostly in the AG, some in Spore, W. Africa & the Med. Suezmaxes were partly assisted by the bullish sentiment of the rising VLCC market and saw the Black Sea-Med TD6 route averaging around $55,000/day during Q12015, which is 70% up from the average during Q12014. Rates for Aframax Tankers are slightly softening over the past month, but the average spot rate is still holding above $25,000/day, with stable activity expected in the short to medium term as well.
Spot earnings for MR tankers are close to $23,500/day while the LR1’s average spot rates are ranging slightly higher at around$25,000/day. LR2’s product tanker rates in the Q12015 averaged the highest for the same period since 2006. These rates have been supported mainly by new refineries in the Middle East, which in turn utilized long haul product exports. Low oil prices have also kept naphtha prices down, making it a competitive alternative to LPG for petrochemical plants feedstock, which ultimately led to strong Asian naphtha imports.
Newbuilding and secondhand prices are also on the rise and in general we are seeing a great volume of transactions on quality modern wet tonnage, as keen buyers appear ready to act on tonnage that could benefit from the strong freight market. More than 105 Secondhand and Resale Tankers of 25.000dwt and above have changed hands since Jan. For the same period we have seen newbuilding orders for more than 130 tankers. The existing tanker orderbook is in excess of 680 vessels, 78% of which is scheduled to be delivered before 2017. At the same time, the healthy returns of the past six months gave tanker owners practically no incentive to send their vessels for scrap. In fact, only 8 large sized tankers went for demo so far in the year, while these where all well above 20 years of age.
According to International Energy Agency (IEA), European oil demand in the first quarter of this year grew at its fastest pace in almost 20 years, increased by 185,000 b/d compared to the Agency’s previous estimates, while low prices and colder weather, were as expected the main reasons behind this strong uptrend. At the same time, China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer behind the United States according to the IEA, is forecasted to consume a little below 12million barrels of oil per day in 2017, with oil consumption doubling since 2004 and oil import dependency up from 30% in 2000 to about 57% in 2014.
So given that oil prices will keep fairing at their lower new normal in the short to medium term, sustaining this way the strong demand for longer, the weight that scheduled deliveries will place on the market is expected to be partly offset, allowing the sector to keep enjoying firm rates with potential of further upside very possible .
By John N. Cotzias
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 05 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS MOVE NORTH THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap has increas ...
Monday, 04 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP Q1'16 PRICES SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 1.38 per MT (3.12%) month over month and US$ 0.93 week on week. ...
Monday, 04 May 15
Q1' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGH THAN 2015 DERIVATIVES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.15 (-0.29%) per MT month over month and increased US$ 0.07 ...
Sunday, 03 May 15
DRY BULK INDICES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was flat to weak for the week starting from 27 April. The BDI was fell around 2.17% closed at 580 points.
...
Thursday, 30 April 15
IRON ORE EXPORTS: A DANGEROUS RACE? - CLARKSONS
The surge in iron ore exports in recent years has resulted in a significant decrease in iron ore spot prices, which dipped to a ten year low of bel ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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