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Wednesday, 20 May 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS
 Since Early October 2014 the tanker market has been experiencing a very positive momentum and has continued its strong performance so far in 2015. Freight rates in the wet tanker market remained solidly firm and somewhat increasing over the past weeks.
The VLCC TD3 daily is today in excess of $80,000/day, reaching 5 year highs and has improved phenomenally on a y-on-y comparison as around this time last year it was averaging at -$3,000/day. Cargo volumes are at elevated levels with oil production in Saudi Arabia holding at record highs and more crude cargo exports coming out of Iraq’s Basrah. Market expectation is that there is will be an upward trend in VLCC rates in June and it is worth noting that nearly 1 out of 3 VLCC’s taken on T/C during 2015 is being used for storage mostly in the AG, some in Spore, W. Africa & the Med. Suezmaxes were partly assisted by the bullish sentiment of the rising VLCC market and saw the Black Sea-Med TD6 route averaging around $55,000/day during Q12015, which is 70% up from the average during Q12014. Rates for Aframax Tankers are slightly softening over the past month, but the average spot rate is still holding above $25,000/day, with stable activity expected in the short to medium term as well.
Spot earnings for MR tankers are close to $23,500/day while the LR1’s average spot rates are ranging slightly higher at around$25,000/day. LR2’s product tanker rates in the Q12015 averaged the highest for the same period since 2006. These rates have been supported mainly by new refineries in the Middle East, which in turn utilized long haul product exports. Low oil prices have also kept naphtha prices down, making it a competitive alternative to LPG for petrochemical plants feedstock, which ultimately led to strong Asian naphtha imports.
Newbuilding and secondhand prices are also on the rise and in general we are seeing a great volume of transactions on quality modern wet tonnage, as keen buyers appear ready to act on tonnage that could benefit from the strong freight market. More than 105 Secondhand and Resale Tankers of 25.000dwt and above have changed hands since Jan. For the same period we have seen newbuilding orders for more than 130 tankers. The existing tanker orderbook is in excess of 680 vessels, 78% of which is scheduled to be delivered before 2017. At the same time, the healthy returns of the past six months gave tanker owners practically no incentive to send their vessels for scrap. In fact, only 8 large sized tankers went for demo so far in the year, while these where all well above 20 years of age.
According to International Energy Agency (IEA), European oil demand in the first quarter of this year grew at its fastest pace in almost 20 years, increased by 185,000 b/d compared to the Agency’s previous estimates, while low prices and colder weather, were as expected the main reasons behind this strong uptrend. At the same time, China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer behind the United States according to the IEA, is forecasted to consume a little below 12million barrels of oil per day in 2017, with oil consumption doubling since 2004 and oil import dependency up from 30% in 2000 to about 57% in 2014.
So given that oil prices will keep fairing at their lower new normal in the short to medium term, sustaining this way the strong demand for longer, the weight that scheduled deliveries will place on the market is expected to be partly offset, allowing the sector to keep enjoying firm rates with potential of further upside very possible .
By John N. Cotzias
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 01 June 15
35,000 MW POWER PLANTS TO BOOST COAL CONSUMPTION - JP
The government’s program to develop 35,000 megawatt (MW) power plants will increase domestic coal consumption, which currently stands at arou ...
Monday, 01 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.36 per MT (0.80%) month over month. The swap was closed at US$ ...
Monday, 01 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-W, M-M; Q1'16 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.15 (2.26%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a f ...
Sunday, 31 May 15
CAPE AND PANAMAX SEGMENTS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: The BDI was up about 0.5 pct week on week and closed at 589 points while the cape index was fell 0.73 pct and closed at 810 po ...
Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodi ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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