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Wednesday, 20 May 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS
 Since Early October 2014 the tanker market has been experiencing a very positive momentum and has continued its strong performance so far in 2015. Freight rates in the wet tanker market remained solidly firm and somewhat increasing over the past weeks.
The VLCC TD3 daily is today in excess of $80,000/day, reaching 5 year highs and has improved phenomenally on a y-on-y comparison as around this time last year it was averaging at -$3,000/day. Cargo volumes are at elevated levels with oil production in Saudi Arabia holding at record highs and more crude cargo exports coming out of Iraq’s Basrah. Market expectation is that there is will be an upward trend in VLCC rates in June and it is worth noting that nearly 1 out of 3 VLCC’s taken on T/C during 2015 is being used for storage mostly in the AG, some in Spore, W. Africa & the Med. Suezmaxes were partly assisted by the bullish sentiment of the rising VLCC market and saw the Black Sea-Med TD6 route averaging around $55,000/day during Q12015, which is 70% up from the average during Q12014. Rates for Aframax Tankers are slightly softening over the past month, but the average spot rate is still holding above $25,000/day, with stable activity expected in the short to medium term as well.
Spot earnings for MR tankers are close to $23,500/day while the LR1’s average spot rates are ranging slightly higher at around$25,000/day. LR2’s product tanker rates in the Q12015 averaged the highest for the same period since 2006. These rates have been supported mainly by new refineries in the Middle East, which in turn utilized long haul product exports. Low oil prices have also kept naphtha prices down, making it a competitive alternative to LPG for petrochemical plants feedstock, which ultimately led to strong Asian naphtha imports.
Newbuilding and secondhand prices are also on the rise and in general we are seeing a great volume of transactions on quality modern wet tonnage, as keen buyers appear ready to act on tonnage that could benefit from the strong freight market. More than 105 Secondhand and Resale Tankers of 25.000dwt and above have changed hands since Jan. For the same period we have seen newbuilding orders for more than 130 tankers. The existing tanker orderbook is in excess of 680 vessels, 78% of which is scheduled to be delivered before 2017. At the same time, the healthy returns of the past six months gave tanker owners practically no incentive to send their vessels for scrap. In fact, only 8 large sized tankers went for demo so far in the year, while these where all well above 20 years of age.
According to International Energy Agency (IEA), European oil demand in the first quarter of this year grew at its fastest pace in almost 20 years, increased by 185,000 b/d compared to the Agency’s previous estimates, while low prices and colder weather, were as expected the main reasons behind this strong uptrend. At the same time, China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer behind the United States according to the IEA, is forecasted to consume a little below 12million barrels of oil per day in 2017, with oil consumption doubling since 2004 and oil import dependency up from 30% in 2000 to about 57% in 2014.
So given that oil prices will keep fairing at their lower new normal in the short to medium term, sustaining this way the strong demand for longer, the weight that scheduled deliveries will place on the market is expected to be partly offset, allowing the sector to keep enjoying firm rates with potential of further upside very possible .
By John N. Cotzias
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 01 June 15
35,000 MW POWER PLANTS TO BOOST COAL CONSUMPTION - JP
The government’s program to develop 35,000 megawatt (MW) power plants will increase domestic coal consumption, which currently stands at arou ...
Monday, 01 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.36 per MT (0.80%) month over month. The swap was closed at US$ ...
Monday, 01 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-W, M-M; Q1'16 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.15 (2.26%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a f ...
Sunday, 31 May 15
CAPE AND PANAMAX SEGMENTS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: The BDI was up about 0.5 pct week on week and closed at 589 points while the cape index was fell 0.73 pct and closed at 810 po ...
Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodi ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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