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Monday, 11 May 15
DRY BULK CARRIER ORDERS CRASH TO A TWENTY YEAR LOW - CLARKSONS
 In the last four months dry bulk orders have fallen to 0.4m dwt per month, the lowest level since the 1990s. This is a massive 98% reduction from the 23m dwt peak in orders in December 2007, and probably the sharpest decline in recent decades. Not really a surprise in a market where Capesize bulkers are struggling to earn $4,000/day, but a timely relief to investors with ships on the order book.
Investment Fever
This investment collapse marks the end of a remarkable phase of bulk carrier history. During the last decade, 724m dwt of new bulkers have been ordered, around 70m dwt/year. Just to put that in perspective, during the previous decade ordering averaged about 20m dwt/year.
The 5 years from 1996 to 2001 were disappointing to investors, who ordered only 1.2m dwt/month. At the time this was seen as normal, and included a spike in 1999, when investors snapped up Panamax bulkers for $19-$22m. These were probably the most profitable bulkers ordered in the industry’s post-war history. Upon delivery they sailed straight into the bulk shipping boom. Proof that “crazy investors” are not always crazy.
Softly, Softly
The next phase from 2002 to November 2006 was quite restrained, considering the rise in freight rates. Ordering edged up, averaging 2.8m dwt/month. As earnings eased in 2006, many assumed the boom was over, but they were wrong and what happened next was unprecedented. As earnings escalated owners threw caution to the wind, and the big bulker cash machine drew investors from outside shipping. In December 2007, ordering peaked at 23m dwt, and in 2007 to 2014, investment averaged 6.8m dwt/month (81m dwt/year), an astonishing number for a period mostly in global recession.
Carry On Investing
Despite the onset of the global downturn in 2008, two more bulker investment spikes followed in 2010 and 2013. With surplus bulker capacity, and China’s growth engine easing off, it’s hard to explain this investment on strictly economic grounds. Easier, perhaps, to understand the change in expectations. The memory of spectacular bulker earnings had been fresh in the minds of some investors, but a decade later and that dream is fading.
The collapse in bulkcarrier investment is a particular problem for shipyards. Many builders in China and Japan surfed the wave of bulkcarrier investment and bulkers still account for around half of tonnage on order globally. In today’s sluggish world economy, that is going to be a difficult gap to fill. The fact that bulker prices are around 5% down this year, and ordering has virtually stopped tells its own story.
Big Bulker Investment Boom
So there you have it. The spectacular run of dry bulk investment which kicked off in early 2003 has finally ended. Then China’s imports were growing at 27% a year, a big difference from the 3% growth in 2014. This is disappointing, but as serious shipping investors know, in good markets and bad, there’s still an awful lot of cargo that has to be moved around the world – it’s just a matter of who moves it.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED OFF ON THE GREEN FOR A SECOND WEEK IN A ROW - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on the green for a second week in a row, while the performance of Capesizes hindered a more substantia ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT : NEWBUILDINGS - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
From a cost-based, buy-low perspective, there is currently a buying opportunity in the second-hand dry bulk market. I am an anti-cyclical (buy-low) ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET: ALL IS NOT LOST FOR A RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The low cost of commodities across the board could trigger an increase of trade among many countries, which in turn could lead to a recovery of the ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
U.S. ELECTRIC GENERATING COMPANIES TO ADD MORE THAN 20 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IN 2015; 16 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IS EXPECTED TO RETIRE IN 2015
COALspot.com: In 2015, electric generating companies in U.S. expect to add more than 20 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale generating capacity to the ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
OIL PRICE FORECASTING - IGNORE THE EXPERTS: COLIN MARSHALL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Experts put themselves on a pedestal, making claims to have special forecasting abilities for oil price trends. They, too ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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