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Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD countries (expected to surpass that of the developing countries by 2020), the increased output of refineries and consequently lower price of refined products.
As we have now entered Q2 and still enjoy some very good returns in the tanker market, we are looking back at the MR returns and how the MR fleet unfolds from 2012 to 2017. We see that an average of 126 vessels is delivered per year with a standard deviation of 32 vessels. The returns in the sector have increased due the factors mentioned above as well as the opening of more and more refineries around the world.
150 vessels, almost half of the orderbook, are due to be delivered throughout this year, while in 2016 and 2017 we expect 123 and 25 vessels respectively. Given the overwhelming slowdown in newbuilding activity over the past 9 months and based on the current economic projections we expect the slowdown in orders to persist for a bit longer.
In the meantime we see that the current environment do not support SnP activity, as Sellers push for more seeing their margins improve and buyers are still considering if the premium is worth at this stage.
The MR fleet up to 5 years old is expected to be around 647 vessels at the beginning of 2017. The main characteristic of the majority of the ships that were built post 2013, is that they are of eco design, which currently earns them a premium of around 10% in the t/c contracts compared to non-eco ships. According to our data the time charter fixtures concluded during the period 2012 up to now with a time horizon of 4 months up to 5 years, we observe that the majority concerns T/C contracts of over 1 year period.
The average 1 yr T/C rate for max 5yr old vessels is around 13,850 /day and it has been on an upward path since last year, while the trend for 2 yr T/C is also rising with an average rate of around usd 13,970/day. We also observe that starting 2013 and throughout 2015 rates have been increasing regardless of vessel age in both these period contracts, while 3-yr period contracts are currently being fixed at around usd16,000/ day for vessels up to ten years old, while the existence of the eco design in this case has made no difference in terms of premium.
The remaining of the year will be challenging for spot players as they will have to cope with the scheduled deliveries that will be added in the active service fleet, while in regards to new entrants – especially private equity funds – we could be seeing more aggressive movements in the form of acquisition of modern units on en-block basis. If this proves to be the case, it will also translate to more aggressiveness in fixing long term contracts as well. Obviously charterers will take advantage of the modernization of the fleet and we anticipate that they will hold back and focus on periods of 2-3 years on modern eco imo units at sub usd 16,000 levels.
Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 03 March 15
Q4' FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 2% LOWER COMPARED TO Q2 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 47.47
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose month on month and declined week over week.
The Q2 swap increased US$ 2.24 ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: Q2 UP 9.60%; Q3 UP 9.75% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 5 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 DELIVERY REACHED $ 57.50 PMT W/E 27 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.37 (+2.44%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 0.42 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
BORYEONG POWER PLANT OF KOMIPO TO IMPORT 140K OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) is inviting bids from coal producers, marketing companies, or traders to supply of 140,000 (70 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP ROSE 6.89% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 3.35 per MT (+6.89%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (0.78%) week on ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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