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Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD countries (expected to surpass that of the developing countries by 2020), the increased output of refineries and consequently lower price of refined products.
As we have now entered Q2 and still enjoy some very good returns in the tanker market, we are looking back at the MR returns and how the MR fleet unfolds from 2012 to 2017. We see that an average of 126 vessels is delivered per year with a standard deviation of 32 vessels. The returns in the sector have increased due the factors mentioned above as well as the opening of more and more refineries around the world.
150 vessels, almost half of the orderbook, are due to be delivered throughout this year, while in 2016 and 2017 we expect 123 and 25 vessels respectively. Given the overwhelming slowdown in newbuilding activity over the past 9 months and based on the current economic projections we expect the slowdown in orders to persist for a bit longer.
In the meantime we see that the current environment do not support SnP activity, as Sellers push for more seeing their margins improve and buyers are still considering if the premium is worth at this stage.
The MR fleet up to 5 years old is expected to be around 647 vessels at the beginning of 2017. The main characteristic of the majority of the ships that were built post 2013, is that they are of eco design, which currently earns them a premium of around 10% in the t/c contracts compared to non-eco ships. According to our data the time charter fixtures concluded during the period 2012 up to now with a time horizon of 4 months up to 5 years, we observe that the majority concerns T/C contracts of over 1 year period.
The average 1 yr T/C rate for max 5yr old vessels is around 13,850 /day and it has been on an upward path since last year, while the trend for 2 yr T/C is also rising with an average rate of around usd 13,970/day. We also observe that starting 2013 and throughout 2015 rates have been increasing regardless of vessel age in both these period contracts, while 3-yr period contracts are currently being fixed at around usd16,000/ day for vessels up to ten years old, while the existence of the eco design in this case has made no difference in terms of premium.
The remaining of the year will be challenging for spot players as they will have to cope with the scheduled deliveries that will be added in the active service fleet, while in regards to new entrants – especially private equity funds – we could be seeing more aggressive movements in the form of acquisition of modern units on en-block basis. If this proves to be the case, it will also translate to more aggressiveness in fixing long term contracts as well. Obviously charterers will take advantage of the modernization of the fleet and we anticipate that they will hold back and focus on periods of 2-3 years on modern eco imo units at sub usd 16,000 levels.
Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 10 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HEADING SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.24 per MT (-0.47%) month over month and US$ 1.52 (-2.93%) we ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery fell US$ 0.42 (-0.74%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 1.00 &nbs ...
Monday, 09 March 15
INDONESIA GREETS INDIA RATE CUT AS GOOD FOR EXPORTS - GLOBEASIA
Indonesian commodity producers and economists have hailed the Indian central bank’s rate cut as good for boosting exports from Southeast Asia ...
Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S SUPREME COURT ISSUES NEW JUDICIAL INTERPRETATION ON SHIP ARREST AND JUDICIAL SALE OF SHIPS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
China is not traditionally a popular jurisdiction for ship arrest. However, Members and clients with ships calling at por ...
Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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