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Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD countries (expected to surpass that of the developing countries by 2020), the increased output of refineries and consequently lower price of refined products.
As we have now entered Q2 and still enjoy some very good returns in the tanker market, we are looking back at the MR returns and how the MR fleet unfolds from 2012 to 2017. We see that an average of 126 vessels is delivered per year with a standard deviation of 32 vessels. The returns in the sector have increased due the factors mentioned above as well as the opening of more and more refineries around the world.
150 vessels, almost half of the orderbook, are due to be delivered throughout this year, while in 2016 and 2017 we expect 123 and 25 vessels respectively. Given the overwhelming slowdown in newbuilding activity over the past 9 months and based on the current economic projections we expect the slowdown in orders to persist for a bit longer.
In the meantime we see that the current environment do not support SnP activity, as Sellers push for more seeing their margins improve and buyers are still considering if the premium is worth at this stage.
The MR fleet up to 5 years old is expected to be around 647 vessels at the beginning of 2017. The main characteristic of the majority of the ships that were built post 2013, is that they are of eco design, which currently earns them a premium of around 10% in the t/c contracts compared to non-eco ships. According to our data the time charter fixtures concluded during the period 2012 up to now with a time horizon of 4 months up to 5 years, we observe that the majority concerns T/C contracts of over 1 year period.
The average 1 yr T/C rate for max 5yr old vessels is around 13,850 /day and it has been on an upward path since last year, while the trend for 2 yr T/C is also rising with an average rate of around usd 13,970/day. We also observe that starting 2013 and throughout 2015 rates have been increasing regardless of vessel age in both these period contracts, while 3-yr period contracts are currently being fixed at around usd16,000/ day for vessels up to ten years old, while the existence of the eco design in this case has made no difference in terms of premium.
The remaining of the year will be challenging for spot players as they will have to cope with the scheduled deliveries that will be added in the active service fleet, while in regards to new entrants – especially private equity funds – we could be seeing more aggressive movements in the form of acquisition of modern units on en-block basis. If this proves to be the case, it will also translate to more aggressiveness in fixing long term contracts as well. Obviously charterers will take advantage of the modernization of the fleet and we anticipate that they will hold back and focus on periods of 2-3 years on modern eco imo units at sub usd 16,000 levels.
Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 March 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS: DECLINED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.48 per MT (-4.77%) month over month and US$ 0.93 (-1.84%) we ...
Monday, 16 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.74% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.17 (-3.74%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1 ...
Sunday, 15 March 15
BDI DECLINED LESSER THAN 1% WEEK OVER WEEK; INDO-INDIA FIRM
COALspot.com: The most of indices, including bulk dry index were falling this week. The BDI has been down by just 0.53 points and closing at 562 po ...
Saturday, 14 March 15
CAPESIZE DRY BULKERS TO AVERAGE BETWEEN $3,000 AND $9,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO
BIMCO issued its latest short-term estimates for the dry bulk market. For March/May: BIMCO assesses that the Capesize time charter (T/C) average ra ...
Friday, 13 March 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.3% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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