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Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD countries (expected to surpass that of the developing countries by 2020), the increased output of refineries and consequently lower price of refined products.
As we have now entered Q2 and still enjoy some very good returns in the tanker market, we are looking back at the MR returns and how the MR fleet unfolds from 2012 to 2017. We see that an average of 126 vessels is delivered per year with a standard deviation of 32 vessels. The returns in the sector have increased due the factors mentioned above as well as the opening of more and more refineries around the world.
150 vessels, almost half of the orderbook, are due to be delivered throughout this year, while in 2016 and 2017 we expect 123 and 25 vessels respectively. Given the overwhelming slowdown in newbuilding activity over the past 9 months and based on the current economic projections we expect the slowdown in orders to persist for a bit longer.
In the meantime we see that the current environment do not support SnP activity, as Sellers push for more seeing their margins improve and buyers are still considering if the premium is worth at this stage.
The MR fleet up to 5 years old is expected to be around 647 vessels at the beginning of 2017. The main characteristic of the majority of the ships that were built post 2013, is that they are of eco design, which currently earns them a premium of around 10% in the t/c contracts compared to non-eco ships. According to our data the time charter fixtures concluded during the period 2012 up to now with a time horizon of 4 months up to 5 years, we observe that the majority concerns T/C contracts of over 1 year period.
The average 1 yr T/C rate for max 5yr old vessels is around 13,850 /day and it has been on an upward path since last year, while the trend for 2 yr T/C is also rising with an average rate of around usd 13,970/day. We also observe that starting 2013 and throughout 2015 rates have been increasing regardless of vessel age in both these period contracts, while 3-yr period contracts are currently being fixed at around usd16,000/ day for vessels up to ten years old, while the existence of the eco design in this case has made no difference in terms of premium.
The remaining of the year will be challenging for spot players as they will have to cope with the scheduled deliveries that will be added in the active service fleet, while in regards to new entrants – especially private equity funds – we could be seeing more aggressive movements in the form of acquisition of modern units on en-block basis. If this proves to be the case, it will also translate to more aggressiveness in fixing long term contracts as well. Obviously charterers will take advantage of the modernization of the fleet and we anticipate that they will hold back and focus on periods of 2-3 years on modern eco imo units at sub usd 16,000 levels.
Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 24 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q2 CLOSED $ 1.87 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has dropped U ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
ARGUS MEDITERRANEAN SOLID FUELS 2015 CONFERENCE | 2-3 JUNE, ISTANBUL
Press Release: Argus Media is proud to announce Argus Mediterranean Solid Fuels, which will be held in Istanbul,on 2-3February.
Argus produces ...
Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, ...
Monday, 23 March 15
Q4' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINED 6.79% M-O-M; 2.55% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.42 per MT (-6.33%) month over month and US$ 1.37 (-2.77%) we ...
Monday, 23 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: Q3 DELIVERY HAS FALLEN 7.93% MONTH-ON-MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.09 (-7.06%) per MT month over month and US$ 2.00 (-3 ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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