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Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD countries (expected to surpass that of the developing countries by 2020), the increased output of refineries and consequently lower price of refined products.
As we have now entered Q2 and still enjoy some very good returns in the tanker market, we are looking back at the MR returns and how the MR fleet unfolds from 2012 to 2017. We see that an average of 126 vessels is delivered per year with a standard deviation of 32 vessels. The returns in the sector have increased due the factors mentioned above as well as the opening of more and more refineries around the world.
150 vessels, almost half of the orderbook, are due to be delivered throughout this year, while in 2016 and 2017 we expect 123 and 25 vessels respectively. Given the overwhelming slowdown in newbuilding activity over the past 9 months and based on the current economic projections we expect the slowdown in orders to persist for a bit longer.
In the meantime we see that the current environment do not support SnP activity, as Sellers push for more seeing their margins improve and buyers are still considering if the premium is worth at this stage.
The MR fleet up to 5 years old is expected to be around 647 vessels at the beginning of 2017. The main characteristic of the majority of the ships that were built post 2013, is that they are of eco design, which currently earns them a premium of around 10% in the t/c contracts compared to non-eco ships. According to our data the time charter fixtures concluded during the period 2012 up to now with a time horizon of 4 months up to 5 years, we observe that the majority concerns T/C contracts of over 1 year period.
The average 1 yr T/C rate for max 5yr old vessels is around 13,850 /day and it has been on an upward path since last year, while the trend for 2 yr T/C is also rising with an average rate of around usd 13,970/day. We also observe that starting 2013 and throughout 2015 rates have been increasing regardless of vessel age in both these period contracts, while 3-yr period contracts are currently being fixed at around usd16,000/ day for vessels up to ten years old, while the existence of the eco design in this case has made no difference in terms of premium.
The remaining of the year will be challenging for spot players as they will have to cope with the scheduled deliveries that will be added in the active service fleet, while in regards to new entrants – especially private equity funds – we could be seeing more aggressive movements in the form of acquisition of modern units on en-block basis. If this proves to be the case, it will also translate to more aggressiveness in fixing long term contracts as well. Obviously charterers will take advantage of the modernization of the fleet and we anticipate that they will hold back and focus on periods of 2-3 years on modern eco imo units at sub usd 16,000 levels.
Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FOR Q4 DELIVERY CRASHES THROUGH $44
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.25 (4.77%) ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $45.28 PMT; DECLINED 7.50% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.67 per MT (-7.50%) month over month and US$ 0.39 week on wee ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q4 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 50.97
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (-8.05%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0 ...
Sunday, 12 April 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady, however the BDI was declined slightly week over week.
BDI dropped 1.36 pct and closed at 580 poin ...
Friday, 10 April 15
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 4.7% W-O-W : EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million short ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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