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Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD countries (expected to surpass that of the developing countries by 2020), the increased output of refineries and consequently lower price of refined products.
As we have now entered Q2 and still enjoy some very good returns in the tanker market, we are looking back at the MR returns and how the MR fleet unfolds from 2012 to 2017. We see that an average of 126 vessels is delivered per year with a standard deviation of 32 vessels. The returns in the sector have increased due the factors mentioned above as well as the opening of more and more refineries around the world.
150 vessels, almost half of the orderbook, are due to be delivered throughout this year, while in 2016 and 2017 we expect 123 and 25 vessels respectively. Given the overwhelming slowdown in newbuilding activity over the past 9 months and based on the current economic projections we expect the slowdown in orders to persist for a bit longer.
In the meantime we see that the current environment do not support SnP activity, as Sellers push for more seeing their margins improve and buyers are still considering if the premium is worth at this stage.
The MR fleet up to 5 years old is expected to be around 647 vessels at the beginning of 2017. The main characteristic of the majority of the ships that were built post 2013, is that they are of eco design, which currently earns them a premium of around 10% in the t/c contracts compared to non-eco ships. According to our data the time charter fixtures concluded during the period 2012 up to now with a time horizon of 4 months up to 5 years, we observe that the majority concerns T/C contracts of over 1 year period.
The average 1 yr T/C rate for max 5yr old vessels is around 13,850 /day and it has been on an upward path since last year, while the trend for 2 yr T/C is also rising with an average rate of around usd 13,970/day. We also observe that starting 2013 and throughout 2015 rates have been increasing regardless of vessel age in both these period contracts, while 3-yr period contracts are currently being fixed at around usd16,000/ day for vessels up to ten years old, while the existence of the eco design in this case has made no difference in terms of premium.
The remaining of the year will be challenging for spot players as they will have to cope with the scheduled deliveries that will be added in the active service fleet, while in regards to new entrants – especially private equity funds – we could be seeing more aggressive movements in the form of acquisition of modern units on en-block basis. If this proves to be the case, it will also translate to more aggressiveness in fixing long term contracts as well. Obviously charterers will take advantage of the modernization of the fleet and we anticipate that they will hold back and focus on periods of 2-3 years on modern eco imo units at sub usd 16,000 levels.
Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 28 April 15
Q2' 15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.18% HIGHER FROM MONTH AGO
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 increased month over month and slightly week over week.
The Q2 swap ha ...
Monday, 27 April 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL BELOW ONE BILLION SHORT TONS IN 2013 - EIA
COALspot.com: For the first time in two decades, U.S. coal production fell below one billion short tons to 984.8 million short tons in 2013 from 1, ...
Monday, 27 April 15
Q3' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 3.69% LOWER THAN Q2' 2015 PRICE OF $46.36
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.19 per MT (0.41%) month over month and US$ 0.78 week on week. ...
Monday, 27 April 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLOWLY IMPROVED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.74 (-1.41%) per MT month over month and increased US$ 0.43 ...
Sunday, 26 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEPT IMPROVING THIS WEEK; CAPES AND PANAMAXES SHOW A SLIGHT PICKUP IN RATES
COALspot.com: The freight market was stable this week as BDI closed at 600 points after improving 0.50 percent week over week.
The cape ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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