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Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
 The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.
The headline data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.
The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.
What does this means to shipping?
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says:
“The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.
“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”
“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”
IMF has revised its World Economic Outlook
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has kept is forecast for global growth unchanged from its January estimate at 3.5% for 2015, while upward adjusting the 2014 estimate to 3.4% (3.3%).
The “New Normal” is also evident from the GDP growth rates in recent years, where advanced economies in particular have suffered from low growth in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008.
For 2015 the advanced economies is staging a comeback, as IMF forecast 2.4% in 2015 against 1.8% in 2014, whereas the emerging markets and developing economies are set to grow by 4.3% against 4.6% last year.
“There are no major surprises in IMF’s forecast. Uneven growth and a lower future potential output level is all known stuff. Amongst the minor surprises the US is downward revised on the back of a higher valued dollar and lower oil production than previously expected.”
“India is also worth mentioning amongst the minor surprises as IMF projects 7.5% growth in both 2015 and 2016. This means India surpass Chinas expected growth of 6.8% and 6.3% for same years. However, as the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India, the shipping industry remains most reliant on the developments in China”, adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 17 March 15
GAS TO CHALLENGE COAL IN THE ASIAN POWER GENERATION MIX - WOOD MACKENZIE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Wood Mackenzie says that coal is facing increasing competition from gas in the power sector. Coal has dominated as the fu ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
RIO TINTO PAID US$ 7.1 BILLION IN TAXES IN 2014
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto has published its latest Taxes paid report, detailing the US$7.1 billion in taxes paid by the company around the world in 2 ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
NEARLY 17% OF US COAL PRODUCTION UNECONOMIC AT CURRENT MARKET PRICING - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: Close to 17% of forecast 2015 US coal production is at risk of idling or closure, totalling 162 million short tons (Mst), as these mi ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
Q3' SA COAL SWAP CLOSED $57.30 PMT W/E 13 MARCH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and gained week on week.
The Q2 swap has fe ...
Monday, 16 March 15
MAKING THE WORLD GO ROUND - SEABORNE TRADE! - CLARKSONS
Money, or even love if you prefer, are claimed to make the world go round. For the shipping world, however, it’s trade that sets things spinn ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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