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Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
 The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.
The headline data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.
The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.
What does this means to shipping?
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says:
“The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.
“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”
“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”
IMF has revised its World Economic Outlook
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has kept is forecast for global growth unchanged from its January estimate at 3.5% for 2015, while upward adjusting the 2014 estimate to 3.4% (3.3%).
The “New Normal” is also evident from the GDP growth rates in recent years, where advanced economies in particular have suffered from low growth in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008.
For 2015 the advanced economies is staging a comeback, as IMF forecast 2.4% in 2015 against 1.8% in 2014, whereas the emerging markets and developing economies are set to grow by 4.3% against 4.6% last year.
“There are no major surprises in IMF’s forecast. Uneven growth and a lower future potential output level is all known stuff. Amongst the minor surprises the US is downward revised on the back of a higher valued dollar and lower oil production than previously expected.”
“India is also worth mentioning amongst the minor surprises as IMF projects 7.5% growth in both 2015 and 2016. This means India surpass Chinas expected growth of 6.8% and 6.3% for same years. However, as the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India, the shipping industry remains most reliant on the developments in China”, adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 24 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q2 CLOSED $ 1.87 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has dropped U ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
ARGUS MEDITERRANEAN SOLID FUELS 2015 CONFERENCE | 2-3 JUNE, ISTANBUL
Press Release: Argus Media is proud to announce Argus Mediterranean Solid Fuels, which will be held in Istanbul,on 2-3February.
Argus produces ...
Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, ...
Monday, 23 March 15
Q4' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINED 6.79% M-O-M; 2.55% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.42 per MT (-6.33%) month over month and US$ 1.37 (-2.77%) we ...
Monday, 23 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: Q3 DELIVERY HAS FALLEN 7.93% MONTH-ON-MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.09 (-7.06%) per MT month over month and US$ 2.00 (-3 ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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