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Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
 The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.
The headline data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.
The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.
What does this means to shipping?
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says:
“The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.
“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”
“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”
IMF has revised its World Economic Outlook
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has kept is forecast for global growth unchanged from its January estimate at 3.5% for 2015, while upward adjusting the 2014 estimate to 3.4% (3.3%).
The “New Normal” is also evident from the GDP growth rates in recent years, where advanced economies in particular have suffered from low growth in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008.
For 2015 the advanced economies is staging a comeback, as IMF forecast 2.4% in 2015 against 1.8% in 2014, whereas the emerging markets and developing economies are set to grow by 4.3% against 4.6% last year.
“There are no major surprises in IMF’s forecast. Uneven growth and a lower future potential output level is all known stuff. Amongst the minor surprises the US is downward revised on the back of a higher valued dollar and lower oil production than previously expected.”
“India is also worth mentioning amongst the minor surprises as IMF projects 7.5% growth in both 2015 and 2016. This means India surpass Chinas expected growth of 6.8% and 6.3% for same years. However, as the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India, the shipping industry remains most reliant on the developments in China”, adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 24 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q2 CLOSED $ 1.87 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has dropped U ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
ARGUS MEDITERRANEAN SOLID FUELS 2015 CONFERENCE | 2-3 JUNE, ISTANBUL
Press Release: Argus Media is proud to announce Argus Mediterranean Solid Fuels, which will be held in Istanbul,on 2-3February.
Argus produces ...
Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, ...
Monday, 23 March 15
Q4' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINED 6.79% M-O-M; 2.55% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.42 per MT (-6.33%) month over month and US$ 1.37 (-2.77%) we ...
Monday, 23 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: Q3 DELIVERY HAS FALLEN 7.93% MONTH-ON-MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.09 (-7.06%) per MT month over month and US$ 2.00 (-3 ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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