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Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
 The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.
The headline data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.
The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.
What does this means to shipping?
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says:
“The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.
“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”
“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”
IMF has revised its World Economic Outlook
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has kept is forecast for global growth unchanged from its January estimate at 3.5% for 2015, while upward adjusting the 2014 estimate to 3.4% (3.3%).
The “New Normal” is also evident from the GDP growth rates in recent years, where advanced economies in particular have suffered from low growth in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008.
For 2015 the advanced economies is staging a comeback, as IMF forecast 2.4% in 2015 against 1.8% in 2014, whereas the emerging markets and developing economies are set to grow by 4.3% against 4.6% last year.
“There are no major surprises in IMF’s forecast. Uneven growth and a lower future potential output level is all known stuff. Amongst the minor surprises the US is downward revised on the back of a higher valued dollar and lower oil production than previously expected.”
“India is also worth mentioning amongst the minor surprises as IMF projects 7.5% growth in both 2015 and 2016. This means India surpass Chinas expected growth of 6.8% and 6.3% for same years. However, as the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India, the shipping industry remains most reliant on the developments in China”, adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 30 March 15
Q3' 15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: DECLINED 8.7% M-M; 12.77% Y-TO-D
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.00 (-8.70%) per MT month over month and US$ 1.33 (-2 ...
Monday, 30 March 15
Q2' FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.47% HIGHER THAN Q4' CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.42 per MT (-10.43%) month over month and US$ 1.60 (-3.32%) w ...
Sunday, 29 March 15
INDO - INDIA: SUPRAMAX & PANAMAX FREIGHT MARKET STEADY
COALspot.com: The freight market was almost stable as all segments slightly up except Panamax sector.
The BDI was up by just 0.85% week over w ...
Saturday, 28 March 15
IS NORTHERN EUROPE THE NEW MINING ELDORADO?
The Europe Mining 2015 Summit, organised by Global Summits organizer IRN on 17-18 June in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, will gather senior level repr ...
Saturday, 28 March 15
THE DRY BULK FLEET AT BREAKING POINT - CLARKSONS
The severe oversupply in the bulkcarrier fleet has contributed to the current trough in the dry bulk market, putting considerable financial pressur ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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