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Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
 The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.
The headline data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.
The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.
What does this means to shipping?
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says:
“The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.
“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”
“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”
IMF has revised its World Economic Outlook
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has kept is forecast for global growth unchanged from its January estimate at 3.5% for 2015, while upward adjusting the 2014 estimate to 3.4% (3.3%).
The “New Normal” is also evident from the GDP growth rates in recent years, where advanced economies in particular have suffered from low growth in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008.
For 2015 the advanced economies is staging a comeback, as IMF forecast 2.4% in 2015 against 1.8% in 2014, whereas the emerging markets and developing economies are set to grow by 4.3% against 4.6% last year.
“There are no major surprises in IMF’s forecast. Uneven growth and a lower future potential output level is all known stuff. Amongst the minor surprises the US is downward revised on the back of a higher valued dollar and lower oil production than previously expected.”
“India is also worth mentioning amongst the minor surprises as IMF projects 7.5% growth in both 2015 and 2016. This means India surpass Chinas expected growth of 6.8% and 6.3% for same years. However, as the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India, the shipping industry remains most reliant on the developments in China”, adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 30 April 15
IRON ORE EXPORTS: A DANGEROUS RACE? - CLARKSONS
The surge in iron ore exports in recent years has resulted in a significant decrease in iron ore spot prices, which dipped to a ten year low of bel ...
Thursday, 30 April 15
IRON ORE PLAYS EXPECTED TO SHAPE UP MAY DRY BULK SCHEDULE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Market plays in the iron ore commodities’ markets, are expected to carve out the future demand for the shipping industry as well, said Allied ...
Wednesday, 29 April 15
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The figures of China’s slowing down imports of coking coal for the first quarter of the year are coming to confirm what everybody was expecti ...
Wednesday, 29 April 15
SHIPBUILDERS START OFFERING DISCOUNTS FOR DRY BULK NEWBUILDINGS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It took a while, but now it appears that some shipbuilders are beginning to adjust their price lists to the new grim reality of the dry bulk market ...
Tuesday, 28 April 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED M-O-M; INCREASED W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 gained week over week but declined month on month.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 0.15 ( ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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