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Saturday, 28 March 15
THE DRY BULK FLEET AT BREAKING POINT - CLARKSONS
 The severe oversupply in the bulkcarrier fleet has contributed to the current trough in the dry bulk market, putting considerable financial pressure on owners, many of whom are subject to earnings close to operating costs. This has triggered a surge in bulkcarrier demolition since the beginning of 2015. If the current rate of scrapping were to continue, there would be a clear impact on dry bulk fleet growth.
A Surge In Scrapping
Bulker demolition has surged in recent months, due to an oversupplied fleet, cooling global dry bulk trade growth and low vessel earnings. A total of 78 vessels (of a combined 5.9m dwt) were reported scrapped in the first two months of 2015, equivalent to 35% of total bulkcarrier demolition in 2014. Capesize scrapping totalled 3.3m dwt, accounting for 56% of all bulker demolition in the two month period, already equivalent to around 80% of scrapping in the sector last year. The average age at which bulker vessels were scrapped has thus fallen to below 25 years for the first time this century.
How Does It Compare?
The annual record level of bulker demolition was 33.4m dwt in 2012, coinciding with a 30% y-o-y drop in average earnings. While earnings were weak, some market indicators were considerably better than they are today. Seaborne dry bulk trade grew 7% (with 3% projected for this year) and the Baltic Dry Index averaged over 900, far above the record low of 509 reached in February 2015. In the first two months of 2015 overall bulker earnings averaged $6,545/day: around $2,000/day less than the annual average for 2012. It is therefore perhaps no surprise that demolition is surging.
The Uneven Distribution
There are several potential impacts of growth in demolition. The Chinese bulkcarrier fleet shrank in 2014, partly due to the government scrapping subsidy. The subsidy is currently set to end this year and with many of the vessels scrapped in the year to date being Chinese-owned, this could shrink the Chinese fleet further. Also, the faster pace of Handysize demolition in Q1 2015 has led the Handymax sector to consolidate its position as the largest in the dry bulk fleet in terms of vessel numbers.
An Interesting Scenario
One very important impact of the surge is the potential stemming of fleet growth. Total bulker scrapping is currently projected to increase by around 30% y-o-y, to reach 21.2m dwt in 2015. However, at the current pace of scrapping, demolition in Q1 2015 could approach a record level, and in the full year, over 35m dwt of bulkers would be scrapped, more than doubling last year’s total. This could slow growth in the bulkcarrier fleet to around 2.5% y-o-y, which would represent the slowest rate in more than a decade. In this scenario Capesize fleet growth would be limited to around 2-3%.
So demolition is surging, and could approach record levels, altering the make-up of the bulker fleet, in terms of age, the distribution across sectors and owner nationality. And whether records are broken or not this year, the increase in demolition will have a clear impact on the rate of fleet expansion.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q2 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 8.66% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined by US$ 3.48 (-5.73%) month over month and US$ 2.35 (-3.94%) week ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q1' 2015 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN Q2 & Q4 2015 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 7.21 ...
Monday, 12 January 15
COAL: LOW PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE A SUPPLY-DRIVEN RECOVERY IN THE MEDIUM TERM - SGX
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices dropped to six-year lows in 2014 driven by persistent oversupply, SGX says in its “ Commodities 2014 - A ye ...
Monday, 12 January 15
FREIGHT MARKET: 2015 FLEET SUPPLY GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF CARGO GROWTH - SGX
COALspot.com: The dry bulk freight market was forced to digest a number of negatives in 2014 leading the Baltic Dry Index to fall 66% through the y ...
Monday, 12 January 15
SHIPPING - CHALLENGES AND RESOLUTIONS - EVA TZIMA
Last year has without a doubt been another challenging one both for both our industry and our country. As Greece is currently dominated by election ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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