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Saturday, 28 March 15
THE DRY BULK FLEET AT BREAKING POINT - CLARKSONS
 The severe oversupply in the bulkcarrier fleet has contributed to the current trough in the dry bulk market, putting considerable financial pressure on owners, many of whom are subject to earnings close to operating costs. This has triggered a surge in bulkcarrier demolition since the beginning of 2015. If the current rate of scrapping were to continue, there would be a clear impact on dry bulk fleet growth.
A Surge In Scrapping
Bulker demolition has surged in recent months, due to an oversupplied fleet, cooling global dry bulk trade growth and low vessel earnings. A total of 78 vessels (of a combined 5.9m dwt) were reported scrapped in the first two months of 2015, equivalent to 35% of total bulkcarrier demolition in 2014. Capesize scrapping totalled 3.3m dwt, accounting for 56% of all bulker demolition in the two month period, already equivalent to around 80% of scrapping in the sector last year. The average age at which bulker vessels were scrapped has thus fallen to below 25 years for the first time this century.
How Does It Compare?
The annual record level of bulker demolition was 33.4m dwt in 2012, coinciding with a 30% y-o-y drop in average earnings. While earnings were weak, some market indicators were considerably better than they are today. Seaborne dry bulk trade grew 7% (with 3% projected for this year) and the Baltic Dry Index averaged over 900, far above the record low of 509 reached in February 2015. In the first two months of 2015 overall bulker earnings averaged $6,545/day: around $2,000/day less than the annual average for 2012. It is therefore perhaps no surprise that demolition is surging.
The Uneven Distribution
There are several potential impacts of growth in demolition. The Chinese bulkcarrier fleet shrank in 2014, partly due to the government scrapping subsidy. The subsidy is currently set to end this year and with many of the vessels scrapped in the year to date being Chinese-owned, this could shrink the Chinese fleet further. Also, the faster pace of Handysize demolition in Q1 2015 has led the Handymax sector to consolidate its position as the largest in the dry bulk fleet in terms of vessel numbers.
An Interesting Scenario
One very important impact of the surge is the potential stemming of fleet growth. Total bulker scrapping is currently projected to increase by around 30% y-o-y, to reach 21.2m dwt in 2015. However, at the current pace of scrapping, demolition in Q1 2015 could approach a record level, and in the full year, over 35m dwt of bulkers would be scrapped, more than doubling last year’s total. This could slow growth in the bulkcarrier fleet to around 2.5% y-o-y, which would represent the slowest rate in more than a decade. In this scenario Capesize fleet growth would be limited to around 2-3%.
So demolition is surging, and could approach record levels, altering the make-up of the bulker fleet, in terms of age, the distribution across sectors and owner nationality. And whether records are broken or not this year, the increase in demolition will have a clear impact on the rate of fleet expansion.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 02 February 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP PICKS UP W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.81 (-1.36%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 0.18&nb ...
Monday, 02 February 15
SOUTH KOREA'S KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 280K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 280,000 MT of Sub-bituminous coal coa ...
Sunday, 01 February 15
INDONESIA-TO-INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall reached lowest levels since 1986 this week.
The BDI declined 15.55 pct to 608 points on Friday 30, Ja ...
Friday, 30 January 15
CONTANGO AND TANKERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Like an invitation to a dance, the word contango may have some people flustered, but for tanker owners this market phenome ...
Friday, 30 January 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION REACHED 65.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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