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Saturday, 28 March 15
THE DRY BULK FLEET AT BREAKING POINT - CLARKSONS
 The severe oversupply in the bulkcarrier fleet has contributed to the current trough in the dry bulk market, putting considerable financial pressure on owners, many of whom are subject to earnings close to operating costs. This has triggered a surge in bulkcarrier demolition since the beginning of 2015. If the current rate of scrapping were to continue, there would be a clear impact on dry bulk fleet growth.
A Surge In Scrapping
Bulker demolition has surged in recent months, due to an oversupplied fleet, cooling global dry bulk trade growth and low vessel earnings. A total of 78 vessels (of a combined 5.9m dwt) were reported scrapped in the first two months of 2015, equivalent to 35% of total bulkcarrier demolition in 2014. Capesize scrapping totalled 3.3m dwt, accounting for 56% of all bulker demolition in the two month period, already equivalent to around 80% of scrapping in the sector last year. The average age at which bulker vessels were scrapped has thus fallen to below 25 years for the first time this century.
How Does It Compare?
The annual record level of bulker demolition was 33.4m dwt in 2012, coinciding with a 30% y-o-y drop in average earnings. While earnings were weak, some market indicators were considerably better than they are today. Seaborne dry bulk trade grew 7% (with 3% projected for this year) and the Baltic Dry Index averaged over 900, far above the record low of 509 reached in February 2015. In the first two months of 2015 overall bulker earnings averaged $6,545/day: around $2,000/day less than the annual average for 2012. It is therefore perhaps no surprise that demolition is surging.
The Uneven Distribution
There are several potential impacts of growth in demolition. The Chinese bulkcarrier fleet shrank in 2014, partly due to the government scrapping subsidy. The subsidy is currently set to end this year and with many of the vessels scrapped in the year to date being Chinese-owned, this could shrink the Chinese fleet further. Also, the faster pace of Handysize demolition in Q1 2015 has led the Handymax sector to consolidate its position as the largest in the dry bulk fleet in terms of vessel numbers.
An Interesting Scenario
One very important impact of the surge is the potential stemming of fleet growth. Total bulker scrapping is currently projected to increase by around 30% y-o-y, to reach 21.2m dwt in 2015. However, at the current pace of scrapping, demolition in Q1 2015 could approach a record level, and in the full year, over 35m dwt of bulkers would be scrapped, more than doubling last year’s total. This could slow growth in the bulkcarrier fleet to around 2.5% y-o-y, which would represent the slowest rate in more than a decade. In this scenario Capesize fleet growth would be limited to around 2-3%.
So demolition is surging, and could approach record levels, altering the make-up of the bulker fleet, in terms of age, the distribution across sectors and owner nationality. And whether records are broken or not this year, the increase in demolition will have a clear impact on the rate of fleet expansion.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 02 April 15
NEWBUILDING ORDERS FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS "DRY" UP
Newbuilding ordering activity remained subdued over the course of the past week, as ship owners are wary of adding further tonnage to an already pr ...
Wednesday, 01 April 15
SUPRAMAX & HANDY: RATES HELD STEADY TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
“Despite the fact that the Dry Bulk market closed off on the green last week, sentiment didn't improve by any means, not only because of ...
Wednesday, 01 April 15
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that we are still witnessing a very challenging and at the same time very uncertain market, both with respect to dry chartering a ...
Wednesday, 01 April 15
Q4' 15 INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $45.15 W/E 27 MARCH 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 drops month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap declined US$ 1.54 (3.24%) mo ...
Tuesday, 31 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month but increased week on week.
The Q2 swap has ...
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