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Saturday, 28 March 15
THE DRY BULK FLEET AT BREAKING POINT - CLARKSONS
 The severe oversupply in the bulkcarrier fleet has contributed to the current trough in the dry bulk market, putting considerable financial pressure on owners, many of whom are subject to earnings close to operating costs. This has triggered a surge in bulkcarrier demolition since the beginning of 2015. If the current rate of scrapping were to continue, there would be a clear impact on dry bulk fleet growth.
A Surge In Scrapping
Bulker demolition has surged in recent months, due to an oversupplied fleet, cooling global dry bulk trade growth and low vessel earnings. A total of 78 vessels (of a combined 5.9m dwt) were reported scrapped in the first two months of 2015, equivalent to 35% of total bulkcarrier demolition in 2014. Capesize scrapping totalled 3.3m dwt, accounting for 56% of all bulker demolition in the two month period, already equivalent to around 80% of scrapping in the sector last year. The average age at which bulker vessels were scrapped has thus fallen to below 25 years for the first time this century.
How Does It Compare?
The annual record level of bulker demolition was 33.4m dwt in 2012, coinciding with a 30% y-o-y drop in average earnings. While earnings were weak, some market indicators were considerably better than they are today. Seaborne dry bulk trade grew 7% (with 3% projected for this year) and the Baltic Dry Index averaged over 900, far above the record low of 509 reached in February 2015. In the first two months of 2015 overall bulker earnings averaged $6,545/day: around $2,000/day less than the annual average for 2012. It is therefore perhaps no surprise that demolition is surging.
The Uneven Distribution
There are several potential impacts of growth in demolition. The Chinese bulkcarrier fleet shrank in 2014, partly due to the government scrapping subsidy. The subsidy is currently set to end this year and with many of the vessels scrapped in the year to date being Chinese-owned, this could shrink the Chinese fleet further. Also, the faster pace of Handysize demolition in Q1 2015 has led the Handymax sector to consolidate its position as the largest in the dry bulk fleet in terms of vessel numbers.
An Interesting Scenario
One very important impact of the surge is the potential stemming of fleet growth. Total bulker scrapping is currently projected to increase by around 30% y-o-y, to reach 21.2m dwt in 2015. However, at the current pace of scrapping, demolition in Q1 2015 could approach a record level, and in the full year, over 35m dwt of bulkers would be scrapped, more than doubling last year’s total. This could slow growth in the bulkcarrier fleet to around 2.5% y-o-y, which would represent the slowest rate in more than a decade. In this scenario Capesize fleet growth would be limited to around 2-3%.
So demolition is surging, and could approach record levels, altering the make-up of the bulker fleet, in terms of age, the distribution across sectors and owner nationality. And whether records are broken or not this year, the increase in demolition will have a clear impact on the rate of fleet expansion.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 20 April 15
Q4' 2015 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 50.28 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.03 (-7.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.05 (-0 ...
Sunday, 19 April 15
THE OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET SHOWED STEADY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was fairly steady this week. The BDI was up 2.93% to 597 points week over week. The cape index was also increased ...
Friday, 17 April 15
IHS ENERGY EUROPEAN COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
Attend the IHS Energy European Coal Outlook Conference 19-20 May in Nice, France and learn about timely concerns in today’s coal industry.
...
Friday, 17 April 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.0 million short ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the forma ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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