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Saturday, 14 March 15
CAPESIZE DRY BULKERS TO AVERAGE BETWEEN $3,000 AND $9,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO
 BIMCO issued its latest short-term estimates for the dry bulk market. For March/May: BIMCO assesses that the Capesize time charter (T/C) average rates will be in the range of USD 3,000-9,000 per day. Panamax T/C average rates will stay around USD 5,000-9,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the range of USD 6,000-9,000 per day, whereas Handysize freight rates are expected around USD 5,000-7,500 per day.
Delivering its outlook on the market, BIMCO noted that “India was the beam of sunlight in an otherwise dark coal market in 2014. Going forward more support could come from India. In China, the question that has been unanswered for a long time is will the lower and lower international iron ore price (-47% in 2014 and still falling some 15% in 2015) favour imports and eventually lead to largescale shutdown of inefficient low-quality Chinese iron ore mines? The jury is still out on that one. Facts are as follows: in 2014, the amount of domestically mined iron ore was up by 4.3% while the iron ore quality of the same went down from an estimated Fe-content of 21% in 2013 to 17% in 2014. Meanwhile iron ore imports with a Fe-content of 62% went up by 13.7% in 2014 from a year earlier”.
BIMCO added “will it become reality or remain a dream – and to what effect will it matter to the Capesize market? Australian exporters won the battle in 2014, much to the regret of the freight market. BIMCO expects that they will not let go of the lead, at the expense of long-haul shipping demand from Brazil. All mining majors have expansion plans in place for 2015 and 2016, and yet another Aussie, the new Roy Hill iron ore mine, will join them towards the end of 2015. The site is set for 55 million tonnes a year once fully operational”.
Meanwhile, as it notes, “Q2 is the peak season for South American exports of soya. Volumes will go higher to the primary benefit of Panamax and Supramax; whether freight rates will follow suit remains to be seen, as too many ships being in position for the season will cap the upside, just as we saw last year. For the Capesizes to find support, the seasonality must kick in here too. Iron ore exports from both Australia and Brazil are expected to increase as we move further into the year. Overall, iron ore volumes are expected to be higher for the full year, though not as strong as in 2014 where several factors moved in a positive direction. Russian wheat exports are on course to beat last season’s volume. However, exports from July to January have been strong enough to have already eclipsed last year’s total, so it seems that more troubles lie ahead for the already reeling Black Sea market as Russian export restrictions kick in”.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of supply, “demolition of dry bulk tonnage was relatively modest for a long time when considering the fundamental conditions of the freight market. However, recent extremely poor freight markets have stirred it up. At the end of February, 68 ships with a combined capacity of 5 million DWT had been demolished since the turn of year, out of which half were of Capesize capacity with an average age of 21 years. This compares to the 27 years average age of the Handysizes going for recycling. The tough trades of the Capesizes cut their commercial life shorter than that of Handysizes. The extremely low earnings has pushed more ships out of the market. The youngest ships being recycled overall were a pair of Panamaxes built in 1998, followed by five Capesizes built in 1996. At the other end of the scale, 20 Handysizes built between 1980 and 1985 were recycled. During the first two months of 2015, 11 million DWT of new dry bulk capacity were delivered into the active fleet. As BIMCO expected, we have seen the majority being newbuilt Supramaxes whereas the delivery pace of Panamax is now coming slightly down. 54 Handymaxes/Supramaxes have already been delivered by the end of February. This compares to 199 for the full year of 2014 [40,000-67,000 DWT].
In the Panamax segment, just 22 ships have been delivered by end-February, as compared to 160 ships (4.6% in annual fleet growth) for the full year of 2014 [67,000-100,000 DWT]. For 2015 as a whole, Panamax deliveries are estimated to go as high as 150 ships (3.3% in annual fleet growth). The troubles in the freight markets have for once also been seen in the order book where interest for new contracts has been subdued. The overall order book dropped to 158.2 million DWT from 168.6 three months ago. It remains an imperative for a sustainable freight market recovery that new contracts remain scarce for an extended amount of time. Fortunately, the newbuilding prices offered by the shipyards are still 10-15% above the lowest of 2012-2013 and are not seen as very attractive”, BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED OFF ON THE GREEN FOR A SECOND WEEK IN A ROW - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on the green for a second week in a row, while the performance of Capesizes hindered a more substantia ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT : NEWBUILDINGS - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
From a cost-based, buy-low perspective, there is currently a buying opportunity in the second-hand dry bulk market. I am an anti-cyclical (buy-low) ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET: ALL IS NOT LOST FOR A RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The low cost of commodities across the board could trigger an increase of trade among many countries, which in turn could lead to a recovery of the ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
U.S. ELECTRIC GENERATING COMPANIES TO ADD MORE THAN 20 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IN 2015; 16 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IS EXPECTED TO RETIRE IN 2015
COALspot.com: In 2015, electric generating companies in U.S. expect to add more than 20 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale generating capacity to the ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
OIL PRICE FORECASTING - IGNORE THE EXPERTS: COLIN MARSHALL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Experts put themselves on a pedestal, making claims to have special forecasting abilities for oil price trends. They, too ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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