We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 11 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT : NEWBUILDINGS - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 From a cost-based, buy-low perspective, there is currently a buying opportunity in the second-hand dry bulk market. I am an anti-cyclical (buy-low) investor as bulk shipping has been cyclical throughout its history because of the inherent delay in supplying and using up the underlying assets (ships). E.g., shipyards currently quote deliveries 2-3 years later while there is intrinsic uncertainty in the duration of the ‘useful life’ of a vessel; the overage trading vessels at the 2007-08 peak of the previous cycle contrast with the recent scrapping of the 2000-built Capesize ‘Cape Flora’.
The cost component is rather obscure. Theoretically, if demand and supply were always balanced, then shipbuilding prices would be the construction cost plus some realistic profit margin for the yard, thus, eventually converging to the true cost. If one knew this, he could determine whether he buys low or not. But having a transparent measure of shipbuilding cost is difficult because it is confidential information and depends on several factors.
We take a shortcut and concentrate on 1986, 1999 and 2012, when it is acknowledged that shipbuilding prices were low. We also resort to the U.S. Consumer Price Index as a proxy for the value of money over time. Then, some beautiful patterns emerge: the 1986 low of $13.5m for the construction of a Panamax Bulker corresponds to $20.45m in 1999 dollar terms, while the actual (nominal) low in 1999 was $19m. This, in turn, corresponds to $26.2m 2012 dollars, with the actual low in late 2012 being rgn $26m, or xs $27m in today’s terms.
This time is different from late 2012 when shipyards were desperate for orders as they were flirting with idleness. We have not this time hit bottom since yards have substantial orderbooks, the incentives for new orders are weaker (low fuel price, poor freight market) and cost components (weaker Yen, lower steel prices) result in a cheaper construction breakeven. Fortunately, although one cannot order today below cost, he can instead buy low a similar asset that already exists in the S&P market. Second-hand values are hovering close to 15-year lows, even in nominal terms, and only in the 1980s crash they were lower in today’s dollars. Meantime, the second-hand to newbuilding price ratios are today the lowest post-1980s.
To conclude, we identified certain points in history (1986, 1999, 2012) when shipbuilding prices were below cost and realized these lows converged to each other in same-year denominated dollars. We then implicitly inferred that ordering newbuildings today is sub-optimal due to the current depressed S&P values which are south of the respective lows in 1999 and 2012. To complete, a buy-low, sell-higher investment strategy, there needs to be substantial trading time ahead for the acquired tonnage. Given that shipping cycles generally do not last longer than 10 years and we have already entered the 7th year of the ongoing cycle, acquiring now modern second-hand tonnage offers the promise for asset play.
By Panos Tsilingiris
Newbuildings / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 16 March 15
MAKING THE WORLD GO ROUND - SEABORNE TRADE! - CLARKSONS
Money, or even love if you prefer, are claimed to make the world go round. For the shipping world, however, it’s trade that sets things spinn ...
Monday, 16 March 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS: DECLINED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.48 per MT (-4.77%) month over month and US$ 0.93 (-1.84%) we ...
Monday, 16 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.74% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.17 (-3.74%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1 ...
Sunday, 15 March 15
BDI DECLINED LESSER THAN 1% WEEK OVER WEEK; INDO-INDIA FIRM
COALspot.com: The most of indices, including bulk dry index were falling this week. The BDI has been down by just 0.53 points and closing at 562 po ...
Saturday, 14 March 15
CAPESIZE DRY BULKERS TO AVERAGE BETWEEN $3,000 AND $9,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO
BIMCO issued its latest short-term estimates for the dry bulk market. For March/May: BIMCO assesses that the Capesize time charter (T/C) average ra ...
|
|
|
Showing 3136 to 3140 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
|
| |
| |
|
