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Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET: ALL IS NOT LOST FOR A RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The low cost of commodities across the board could trigger an increase of trade among many countries, which in turn could lead to a recovery of the dry bulk market soon. In its latest report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking noted that “with commodity prices still under pressure and possibly slipping further as the U.S. dollar gains ground, there could be room for some extra demand to surface down the line. For one, activity in terms of Chinese imports of iron ore have already been on the rise since late February and although this has yet to translate into higher earnings for Capes, the possible competitive edge for Brazilian iron ore, due to the sliding value of Brazil’s real, could lead to a sharp increase in demand for those longer haul routes. This would likely be pushing out some of the locally sourced supply in China, rather than those sourced from Australia, leaving a positive after taste for seaborne trade. This is supported further by the fact that the new price reality of iron ore at bellow US$ 60 per tonne on the spot market, looks more like a level that could be sustained by the more competitive miners of Australia and S. America rather than the local Chinese miners”, said Allied in its report.
According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, “inventories have been on the rise once more, despite the rumours of slowing down steel production in China, giving a sense that this might be a temporary restocking rather than a full blown recovery trajectory many would have hoped for. The Chinese steel sector is still struggling with the slower growth reality, leaving the industry with heavy overcapacity issues and increasing costs due to new environmental laws. With the possibility of part of its excess of 1.1billion tonne annual capacity facing closure, China’s steel production is unlikely to drive the same demand growth of past which is much needed for some of the major dry bulk commodities, namely that of Iron ore and coal. With both of these commodities taken up in their majority by the capsize market and China having accounted for the lion’s share in their seaborne trade, it will likely be these larger dry bulkers which will find themselves facing the most difficult conditions. It has been no surprise therefore that during the past weeks were all other size segments have shown an improvement from their previous lows in the freight market, Capes are still under considerable pressure and have even managed to slide below an average rate of US$ 5,000 per day in the spot market. Any strong improvement as that proposed above, is looking likely to only be a temporary one as things stand now”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that ‘yet it’s not all bad news as it seems for the dry bulk market. Much of this recent improvement in the smaller size segments is likely to intensify further over the coming months, as the strong performance of the Atlantic basin is slowly getting primed to be hit by the influx of ECSA’s grains. What’s more is that although the grain production is estimated to only be moderately higher than that of last year (while Argentina has already announced that it may lower its previous estimates for the 2014/15 season due to the heavy rains faced recently), the much lower prices could create interesting arbitrage amongst markets, leading to higher trade volumes and possibly an even higher increase in tonne-mile demand. The question is that this is only seasonal and once these grain stems are gone what’s left to drive the market forward over the seasonally softer summer months?”, Lazaridis wondered.
He concluded his analysis by mentioning that “overall it looks like 2015 is turning out to be exactly what most feared it would, though it won’t all be like the “blood bath” that we have witnessed during the first months of the year. The truth of the matter is that the commodity boom of the past seems long gone now and we need to be more moderate moving forward in order to better accommodate the new “Status quo”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 11 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DROP $ 3.65 - 4.0/T W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has fell US$ ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED OFF ON THE GREEN FOR A SECOND WEEK IN A ROW - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on the green for a second week in a row, while the performance of Capesizes hindered a more substantia ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT : NEWBUILDINGS - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
From a cost-based, buy-low perspective, there is currently a buying opportunity in the second-hand dry bulk market. I am an anti-cyclical (buy-low) ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
U.S. ELECTRIC GENERATING COMPANIES TO ADD MORE THAN 20 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IN 2015; 16 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IS EXPECTED TO RETIRE IN 2015
COALspot.com: In 2015, electric generating companies in U.S. expect to add more than 20 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale generating capacity to the ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
OIL PRICE FORECASTING - IGNORE THE EXPERTS: COLIN MARSHALL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Experts put themselves on a pedestal, making claims to have special forecasting abilities for oil price trends. They, too ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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