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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 10 April 15
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 4.7% W-O-W : EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million short ...
Friday, 10 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET'S DOWNFALL ALSO OFFER INVESTMENT BARGAINS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk market rates have fallen to historical lows over the past few weeks, with no clear path of recovery, at least in the near term. As such, m ...
Thursday, 09 April 15
CAPESIZE: RATES ARE STILL DISAPPOINTING - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy market had a stronger sentiment before the Easter holidays, but have as the bigger panamaxes seen a softening tendency this week. ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET SEEMS UNABLE TO CATCH A BREAK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seems unable to catch a break these days.
According to Intermodal, following the market stabilization that p ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
CHINA BURNS HALF OF THE WORLD'S COAL - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
Intermodal Weekly Market Update
China is the world's largest consumer of coal, using more coal each year than the United States, the Europ ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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