We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 04 March 15
KEEP CALM AND INVEST IN DRY - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Keep Calm and Carry On was originally a motivational poster, intended to raise the morale of the British public, produced by the British government in 1939 in preparation for the Second World War. In today's shipping environment where the daily headlines are in the likes of “excess vessel supply continues to weigh on the dry bulk market” and “slower growth in steel output and reduced coal demand contribute to a declining freight rate environment”, we also need all the motivation we can get. Companies’ revenues have declined and many operators are in the red, some are chopping charter rates, we hear about bankruptcies, restructurings and anyone can easily paint a very bleak outlook for the next couple of years.
According to the IMF, global growth in 2014 was 3.3% and in 2015 - 2016 it is projected to be 3.5 and 3.7 percent respectively. It is notable that the 2015-16 projections were revised downwards by 0.3% in October 2014, reflecting the reassessment of prospects in China, Russia, the euro area, and Japan, as well as weaker activity in some major oil exporters because of the sharp drop in oil prices. The United States is the only major economy for which growth projections have been raised.
In January 2014 the dry bulk fleet (over 20,000tons dwt) stood at 8,979 vessels or 697,63million tons deadweight. During 2014 the net growth (deliveries/additions minus demolitions/removals) was 5% in terms of deadweight (a closer proxy to the carrying capacity). Given the fact that there is high correlation between global growth and seaborne trade, unless the GDP growth is higher than the fleet growth, then simply put “the ships are always too many for the cargoes”. With the world growth at 3.3% in 2014 it is evident that the world fleet has been under-utilized and supply has exceeded demand.
In 2015 demolition levels and slippage/cancellations/conversions will be the key. Let’s look at some numbers. The current dry fleet is at 737.65 million tons deadweight while the dry orderbook for 2015 stands at 69million tons deadweight. Assuming that only 80% of this will be delivered (due to slippage, cancellations, conversions etc.) the increase will be 55.2mil tons deadweight. If demolition activity, which has kicked off the year encouragingly, ends up being similar to the levels of 2012, it will be a huge relief valve. In 2012 according to our data about 30million tons dwt was scrapped so if this repeats, the net growth of the fleet will be about 25million tons dwt or 3.4%. This is quite marginal against the projected global growth for 2015 but it may very well signal a balanced supply-demand outlook. So any upside on either the supply (more cancellations, more demolition) or the demand side (the boost to global demand from lower oil prices could be greater than is currently factored into the projections) can reverse the current situation.
The obvious question is if demolition activity can indeed reach 2012 levels. Well, the fleet of ships older than 25 years stands at 29.4mil tonnes i.e. a shade lower than the “required” volume that needs to be scrapped; another 40mil tonnes deadweight are the ships between 20-25 years. In the first two months of 2015, we have already seen much younger vessels sent for scrap. So the relief valve is there and needs to be kept open. Upcoming regulations that will require the shipowners to invest in upgrading their assets will also help in that direction since older assets will not be worth the investment.
So there you have it, there is a quite plausible scenario that can play out this year that can shift things towards the right direction and as long as a series of logical events occur, then we may be looking at a stronger and more balanced 2nd half of 2015. So, Keep Calm and Invest in Dry.
By Theodore Ntalakos
Newbuildings / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 08 February 15
BDI FELL CONTINUOUSLY HIT A THREE DECADES LOW
COALspot.com: This week Baltic Exchange Dry Freight Index (BDI) fell continuously hit a three decades low.
The BDI continuously fell and was d ...
Friday, 06 February 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP AN ESTIMATED 1.1% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 20.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 06 February 15
SHIP DAMAGED BY FIRE CAUSED BY PIRATES FOUND TO BE CONSTRUCTIVE TOTAL LOSS - TAYLOR WESSING
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The High Court was asked to determine a number of preliminary issues, including whether a vessel was a constructive total ...
Thursday, 05 February 15
BDI HAS NOW FALLEN A LEVEL CLOSE TO THE INDEX'S HISTORIC LOW - INTERMODAL
They say a picture is worth a thousand words and in this instance just one look at the tables above is enough to understand the great pressure the ...
Thursday, 05 February 15
ULTRAMAX LEVELS FROM INDIA TO CHINA IN THE MID US$ 5000'S - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Despite the overall weak sentiment, there is a scent of optimism in the Atlantic market for ppt dates. Continent is still struggling with o ...
|
|
|
Showing 3211 to 3215 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
