We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 04 March 15
KEEP CALM AND INVEST IN DRY - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Keep Calm and Carry On was originally a motivational poster, intended to raise the morale of the British public, produced by the British government in 1939 in preparation for the Second World War. In today's shipping environment where the daily headlines are in the likes of “excess vessel supply continues to weigh on the dry bulk market” and “slower growth in steel output and reduced coal demand contribute to a declining freight rate environment”, we also need all the motivation we can get. Companies’ revenues have declined and many operators are in the red, some are chopping charter rates, we hear about bankruptcies, restructurings and anyone can easily paint a very bleak outlook for the next couple of years.
According to the IMF, global growth in 2014 was 3.3% and in 2015 - 2016 it is projected to be 3.5 and 3.7 percent respectively. It is notable that the 2015-16 projections were revised downwards by 0.3% in October 2014, reflecting the reassessment of prospects in China, Russia, the euro area, and Japan, as well as weaker activity in some major oil exporters because of the sharp drop in oil prices. The United States is the only major economy for which growth projections have been raised.
In January 2014 the dry bulk fleet (over 20,000tons dwt) stood at 8,979 vessels or 697,63million tons deadweight. During 2014 the net growth (deliveries/additions minus demolitions/removals) was 5% in terms of deadweight (a closer proxy to the carrying capacity). Given the fact that there is high correlation between global growth and seaborne trade, unless the GDP growth is higher than the fleet growth, then simply put “the ships are always too many for the cargoes”. With the world growth at 3.3% in 2014 it is evident that the world fleet has been under-utilized and supply has exceeded demand.
In 2015 demolition levels and slippage/cancellations/conversions will be the key. Let’s look at some numbers. The current dry fleet is at 737.65 million tons deadweight while the dry orderbook for 2015 stands at 69million tons deadweight. Assuming that only 80% of this will be delivered (due to slippage, cancellations, conversions etc.) the increase will be 55.2mil tons deadweight. If demolition activity, which has kicked off the year encouragingly, ends up being similar to the levels of 2012, it will be a huge relief valve. In 2012 according to our data about 30million tons dwt was scrapped so if this repeats, the net growth of the fleet will be about 25million tons dwt or 3.4%. This is quite marginal against the projected global growth for 2015 but it may very well signal a balanced supply-demand outlook. So any upside on either the supply (more cancellations, more demolition) or the demand side (the boost to global demand from lower oil prices could be greater than is currently factored into the projections) can reverse the current situation.
The obvious question is if demolition activity can indeed reach 2012 levels. Well, the fleet of ships older than 25 years stands at 29.4mil tonnes i.e. a shade lower than the “required” volume that needs to be scrapped; another 40mil tonnes deadweight are the ships between 20-25 years. In the first two months of 2015, we have already seen much younger vessels sent for scrap. So the relief valve is there and needs to be kept open. Upcoming regulations that will require the shipowners to invest in upgrading their assets will also help in that direction since older assets will not be worth the investment.
So there you have it, there is a quite plausible scenario that can play out this year that can shift things towards the right direction and as long as a series of logical events occur, then we may be looking at a stronger and more balanced 2nd half of 2015. So, Keep Calm and Invest in Dry.
By Theodore Ntalakos
Newbuildings / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 19 February 15
PANAMAX: NOPAC AND AUSSIE ROUNDS ARE DONE IN LOW/MID $ 4000; TRIPS VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA CLOSER TO THE $5000 MARK - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy and supra market has not seen any firming rates in front of the Chinese New Year and still suffering on low activity in both hemi ...
Wednesday, 18 February 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO RECOVER IN LATE 2015 - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Strong trade growth, moderating fleet development and deployment of new fuel efficient vessels are expected to lead to a recovery in dry bulk shipp ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
WHO PAYS THE SUEZ CANAL FEES? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This was an appeal from an arbitration award on a point of construction in relation to the wording of an addendum to a ch ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
BUOYANT WAVES IN RECENT YEARS: GLOBAL SHIP INVESTMENT SINCE THE CRASH - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Anxiety about fleet expansion is a recurring feature of world shipping markets. Within the global maritime community, worries about the vast amount ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
FOB SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP 8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 3.58 (+8.00%) month o ...
|
|
|
Showing 3186 to 3190 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
|
| |
| |
|
