We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 04 March 15
KEEP CALM AND INVEST IN DRY - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Keep Calm and Carry On was originally a motivational poster, intended to raise the morale of the British public, produced by the British government in 1939 in preparation for the Second World War. In today's shipping environment where the daily headlines are in the likes of “excess vessel supply continues to weigh on the dry bulk market” and “slower growth in steel output and reduced coal demand contribute to a declining freight rate environment”, we also need all the motivation we can get. Companies’ revenues have declined and many operators are in the red, some are chopping charter rates, we hear about bankruptcies, restructurings and anyone can easily paint a very bleak outlook for the next couple of years.
According to the IMF, global growth in 2014 was 3.3% and in 2015 - 2016 it is projected to be 3.5 and 3.7 percent respectively. It is notable that the 2015-16 projections were revised downwards by 0.3% in October 2014, reflecting the reassessment of prospects in China, Russia, the euro area, and Japan, as well as weaker activity in some major oil exporters because of the sharp drop in oil prices. The United States is the only major economy for which growth projections have been raised.
In January 2014 the dry bulk fleet (over 20,000tons dwt) stood at 8,979 vessels or 697,63million tons deadweight. During 2014 the net growth (deliveries/additions minus demolitions/removals) was 5% in terms of deadweight (a closer proxy to the carrying capacity). Given the fact that there is high correlation between global growth and seaborne trade, unless the GDP growth is higher than the fleet growth, then simply put “the ships are always too many for the cargoes”. With the world growth at 3.3% in 2014 it is evident that the world fleet has been under-utilized and supply has exceeded demand.
In 2015 demolition levels and slippage/cancellations/conversions will be the key. Let’s look at some numbers. The current dry fleet is at 737.65 million tons deadweight while the dry orderbook for 2015 stands at 69million tons deadweight. Assuming that only 80% of this will be delivered (due to slippage, cancellations, conversions etc.) the increase will be 55.2mil tons deadweight. If demolition activity, which has kicked off the year encouragingly, ends up being similar to the levels of 2012, it will be a huge relief valve. In 2012 according to our data about 30million tons dwt was scrapped so if this repeats, the net growth of the fleet will be about 25million tons dwt or 3.4%. This is quite marginal against the projected global growth for 2015 but it may very well signal a balanced supply-demand outlook. So any upside on either the supply (more cancellations, more demolition) or the demand side (the boost to global demand from lower oil prices could be greater than is currently factored into the projections) can reverse the current situation.
The obvious question is if demolition activity can indeed reach 2012 levels. Well, the fleet of ships older than 25 years stands at 29.4mil tonnes i.e. a shade lower than the “required” volume that needs to be scrapped; another 40mil tonnes deadweight are the ships between 20-25 years. In the first two months of 2015, we have already seen much younger vessels sent for scrap. So the relief valve is there and needs to be kept open. Upcoming regulations that will require the shipowners to invest in upgrading their assets will also help in that direction since older assets will not be worth the investment.
So there you have it, there is a quite plausible scenario that can play out this year that can shift things towards the right direction and as long as a series of logical events occur, then we may be looking at a stronger and more balanced 2nd half of 2015. So, Keep Calm and Invest in Dry.
By Theodore Ntalakos
Newbuildings / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 26 March 15
KYUSHU ELECTRIC POWER OF JAPAN HAS JOINED GLOBALCOAL ONLINE COAL TRADING PLATFORM
globalCOAL® announced today that Kyushu Electric Power, one of Japan’s largest utility companies, has joined its online coal trading plat ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT: TANKER CHARTERING - KATERINA RESTIS
The 1st of January 2015, as broadly reported, denoted the beginning date of new and progressive emission regulations for vessels operating within t ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
AUSTRALIA SET TO ONCE AGAIN BE THE WORLD'S LARGEST COAL EXPORTER - COAL, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Greg Evans, Executive Director - Coal, Minerals Council of Australia
Media Release: The latest Resources and Energy Quarterly published by the ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
AUSTRALIA UPSTREAM ENERGY FIRMS FACE RISING OIL PRICE EXPOSURE - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says the Australian oil and gas companies involved in exploration and production face higher exposure to oil price-linked revenues, w ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
2014 : UK COAL IMPORTS DECLINED 17%; GERMANY COAL IMPORTS UP 6%
Hard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation ...
|
|
|
Showing 3111 to 3115 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
