We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 10 February 15
IRON ORE MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN 2015: PRICE FORECAST $70/T - WOOD MACKENZIE
 COALspot.com: With January witnessing the price of iron ore falling to its lowest levels since May 2009, Roger Emslie, Principal Metals & Mining Consultant for Wood Mackenzie says there is little to suggest the picture is likely to pick up in 2015 with demand set to remain "slower not lower" and therefore prices will remain low for longer.
Addressing delegates at the Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town, Mr Emslie asserts; "It’s hard to believe, but 2015 has started even worse than 2014 finished. Having commenced January just above US$70 a tonne , the TSI 62% Index was trading at US$62/t by the close of the month resulting in a monthly average of US$67/t CFR – its lowest since May 2009."
According to Wood Mackenzie's iron ore market outlook, demand is unlikely to show any meaningful improvement until late Q1 or early Q2 due to a combination of seasonal and cyclical reasons. Mr Emslie adds: "We have lowered our Q1-15 price forecast to US$67/t CFR and our CY-15 price to US$70/t CFR (basis 62% Fe sinter fines)."
Explaining Wood Mackenzie's short-term outlook in more detail Mr Emslie says: "Iron ore prices may be languishing at their lowest level for nearly six years, but it remains difficult to make a positive case for prices in the short term. Chinese steel mills have cut production in recent weeks due to a combination of weak demand and planned maintenance and this is feeding through directly to iron ore requirements. With the Lunar New Year holidays just a few weeks away Chinese steel production will get worse before it gets better. Steel mills will not re-stock in a falling or stagnant market and when they do there should be plenty of slack in the system, as shown by the high level of inventory held at Chinese mines.
Outside of China the picture is similarly uninspiring due to a combination of seasonal and structural factors. Other than the Middle East and India none of the major iron ore importers have shown any meaningful improvement in demand, a situation that is unlikely to change in the short term."
"The outlook for Q2 is marginally better: Chinese mills should start re-stocking post Lunar New Year, driven by seasonally stronger domestic demand and a pick-up in exports of steel products. This should coincide with slightly tighter seaborne supply as Australian exports reach a temporary plateau and high cost suppliers elsewhere remain out of the market."
Wood Mackenzie warns that if the iron ore price remains in the low $60/t range then more closures from mid-tier producers seem likely and more asset write-downs are a near certainty: "As recent announcements show, there’s only so far that cost cutting can go before difficult decisions need to be taken concerning the long term viability of a mine in a structurally oversupplied market," Mr Emslie adds.
So what led to the collapse in prices? "Australian exports surged ahead by approximately 140 million tonnes (Mt) in 2014 based on investment decisions made several years ago when prices were higher and the long term view was more bullish," says Mr Emslie, "As supply ramped up in 2014, Chinese steel demand did the unthinkable and contracted for the year creating a clear disconnect between supply and demand, marking a decisive turning point for iron ore."
On Chinese imports, which crucially account for 66% of the global total, Mr Emslie says: "2014 finished on a high for Chinese imports (in volume terms not value) with China importing a record 86.9Mt in December." The total value of Chinese imports (in US dollar terms) fell in 2014, despite the volume rising by over 100Mt. Mr Emslie explains; "China’s import bill for iron ore peaked at $112 billion in 2011 (when iron ore prices averaged $168/t) but have subsequently fallen by 16% to $95 billion in 2014. China should see another significant drop in its iron ore import bill in 2015 as significantly lower prices and freight costs more than offset higher volume. We currently forecast a 30Mt rise in Chinese imports of iron ore this year with strong growth in Australian shipments partially offset by price related cutbacks elsewhere."
Pointing to more recent to iron ore news from Australia in January Mr Emslie comments on the impact of sustained oversupply; "The series of announcements and data we've seen provides further evidence of the widening gap between the major miners and the rest of the supply chain. Fourth quarter production reports from Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and FMG confirm that their low cost expansions are progressing well, paving the way for even higher output in 2015/16." Mr Emslie concludes; "The strong performance of the majors comes at the expense of relatively high cost mid-tier suppliers who are scaling back investment and cutting production in response to low prices and compressed margins."
Iron ore in numbers:
- Iron ore price forecast for Q1 2015 is $67/t CFR.For CY 2015 $70/t CFR (basis 62% Fe sinter fines)
- Global iron ore production 2201 million tonnes (2014)
- Global imports 1404 million tonnes (2014)
- Chinese imports 930 million tonnes (2014)
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 13 March 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.3% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 13 March 15
ADARO RECORDED A 7% INCREASE IN EBITDA OF $877 MILLION IN 2014
“Coal market continues to be difficult and challenging” – Adaro Energy
The world’s Top 5 thermal coal exporter, ...
Thursday, 12 March 15
CAPESIZE : ACTIVITY IS LOW; PANAMAX: BIT MORE ACTIVITY; HANDY: A FIRMING WEEK
Handy
It has been a firming week in both hemispheres this week and especially in the Pacific, says Fearnleys AS in its week's week report.
...
Thursday, 12 March 15
COAL MINERS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE AS GLUT CONTINUES - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia’s major coal miners reported a significant drop in their earnings last year as the sharp drop in the global demand, mainly from Chi ...
Thursday, 12 March 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DROP TO $47.33 A TON IN THE WEEK ENDED MAR.6
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 0.37 (0.78%) month ...
|
|
|
Showing 3141 to 3145 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
|
| |
| |
|
