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Monday, 12 January 15
COAL: LOW PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE A SUPPLY-DRIVEN RECOVERY IN THE MEDIUM TERM - SGX

COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices dropped to six-year lows in 2014 driven by persistent oversupply, SGX says in its “ Commodities 2014 - A year of the bear” report.

According to SGX, falling Chinese imports added to market woes, though Indian imports are expected to continue to rise. Indonesia struggled to cap output and a proliferation in illegal mining, while Australian production also remained high. Looking forward, low prices are expected to drive a supply-driven recovery in the medium term, though timing remains uncertain and such a recovery has yet to be priced into the futures market.

SGX again noted that, oversupply drove thermal coal prices to six-year lows in 2014, with both prices and volatility remaining relatively depressed. Looking forward, persistent low prices are expected to force higher cost production out of the market, with some traders anticipating a price recovery towards the end of the year or in 2016 (though this is not priced into the futures market).

Coal contributes to more than two-thirds of power generation in Australia, China & India.*

China - the largest importer of thermal coal – has seen declining imports in recent months, and also imposed an import duty of 6% (including restrictions around the distance and quality of thermal coal that could be transported domestically) – Indonesia though remains exempt under an FTA. China also reduced its export tax from 10% to 3%.

India - aspirations for 24/7 power supply, urbanization and industrialization, coupled with challenges extracting coal domestically, could see India emerge as the largest importer of thermal coal in the coming years. However, challenges loom around port capacity constraints and infrastructure bottlenecks.

Indonesia – the largest exporter of thermal coal – targets production of 460 mil mt in 2015, up from anticipated production of 450 mil mt last year (revised up from original target of 421 mil mt), of which about 76% will be allocated for export. The country continues to struggle to control output with illegal mining rife, and fresh regulations were implemented to tackle this in late 2014.

Australia - Exports remain relatively strong, and recent currency depreciation should help alleviate margin pressure on local producers.

SGX launched two new thermal coal products in August 2014 – API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal and API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal.
*World Coal Association



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