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Monday, 12 January 15
SHIPPING - CHALLENGES AND RESOLUTIONS - EVA TZIMA
 Last year has without a doubt been another challenging one both for both our industry and our country. As Greece is currently dominated by election fever, we cannot but wonder what sort of challenges we could be facing in 2015, while as the bitter sweet taste the performance of our industry left us with as 2014 ended is still strong, we look back to the activity of Greek owners last year together with what could be lying ahead for the different shipping markets this year.
Greek owners were reported as Buyers in 340 of the 2014 reported second-hand sales and as Sellers in 153 of them. This trend clearly shows that despite the volatility in the freight market, Greeks were still keen on snapping second-hand tonnage during the year. At the same time they have shown a clear preference on Japanese quality units, while the softening of asset prices that has been taking place since mid-year, has also helped SnP activity, which despite the challenging conditions of the market in 2014, remained pretty much at the same levels we saw back in 2013.
As far as the following months are concerned, and while the Dry Bulk market remains under pressure, we expect SnP activity for dry bulkers to considerably soften, as most owners will choose to sit on the sidelines until they have a more clear view of what’s coming ahead. On the tankers side, where things have been considerably more upbeat, we expect buying interest for crude carriers to remain stable overall at least for the first quarter of next year, while the recent popularity of MR and LR1 tonnage seems to be holding well, despite the fact that the long list of scheduled 2015 deliveries for the former are expected to weigh down on freight rates, fact which will most certainly scale back the current upside.
Out of the 2,874 newbuilding orders that were recorded during 2014, Greek owners were reported to be behind 127 of them, which is almost a 30% decrease compared to 2013 Greek orders. The new-building market has faced an extremely challenging year in terms of activity and this has been mostly attributed to the sharp fall in dry bulker orders compared to the previous year. Following the ordering spree of 2013, newbuilding prices remained on an upward trend for almost the entire first half of 2014 and despite the fact that the performance of the dry bulk freight market missed the expectations built up during the end of 2013. This has weighed down considerably on ordering interest for conventional vessels.
Prospects for next year remain dim. Despite the fact that prices currently stand well off the highs of January, most owners currently seem completely uninterested in revisiting the prospect of placing an order. On top of that, even in sectors that are currently enjoying some good earnings, the tonnage that is due to hit the water this year, is bound to put pressure on earnings and thus will further deter owners from heading back to the yards.
On the demolition front, 1,158 vessels in total were reported scrapped in 2014, a number significantly smaller compared to 2013. The percentage of Greek owned vessels that headed for scrapping remained stable nonetheless, showing that the mentality of getting rid of vintage tonnage and in most cases replacing it with modern one is still part of the Greek mentality. The demolition market was also under pressure last year. Following the intense scrapping activity of 2013, which in some cases created fairly “young fleets”, especially within size segments in the tanker sector, limited the volume of potential scrapping candidates. At the same time and despite the fact that demo prices were kept at significantly attractive levels during the first half of the year, most owners kept holding on to the hope of better freight rates during the last quarter of 2014, thus ruling out the demolition option. On top of that and even more importantly, as cheap Chinese scrap steel has been flooding the markets since the beginning of the summer, demo buyers in the Indian subcontinent were forced to lower their bids by more than $70/ldt in a very short period of time, making the demolition option even less attractive to owners of vintage tonnage. Despite the fact that steel demand remains overall healthy amongst breaker countries, we expect the negative trend of both demo volume and prices to resume next year, especially as any measures that could potentially set a floor on Chinese steel imports are being delayed.
At the beginning of every year, people make New Year’s resolutions. Perhaps the one for our industry should be to reinvent itself, which is always a task that requires hard work but in this case might be necessary in order to move ahead minimizing the extent to which our expectations are missed and the eventual disappointment to ourselves. Are we bound to witness rates achieved at the pick of last cycle for prolonged periods anytime soon? Probably not. But this doesn’t mean that there isn’t still value in operating ships today. I often hear that the entry of private equity in shipping in the past years has added to the often talked about oversupply of tonnage, but in my opinion this is not true. Private equity is actually behind a fairly small part of the funding that added the “extra” tonnage we are dealing with today. What non-traditional shipping players are responsible for though, is probably the change of mentality that made some in our industry eager to chase the quick asset play rather than operate a ship throughout its commercial life and gain from market conditions that could still bring along substantial profits. So let’s get back to the basics and hope that this won’t be a resolution that shares the same fate most New Year resolutions do...
Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
 About the Author
Eva Tzima has experience of more than a decade as a financial analyst and has focused on the shipping industry through private equity projects as well as maritime stock analysis. Since 2012 she has been working as a Research analyst at Intermodal Shipbrokers Co., where she currently holds the position of Head of Research, focusing in the specific analysis of the SnP, Newbuilding and Demolition markets across the Dry Bulk, Tanker, Container and Gas Carrier sectors.
Previous to her current post she worked as an investment manager for a privately owned portfolio and in Trafalgar Asset Managers Ltd in London, mainly focusing in Private Equity Projects in the shipping, energy and aircraft sectors, as well as in Primary and Secondary Debt investments. During her employment in Trafalgar she acted as a director across a number of boards of entities affiliated to Trafalgar.
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 19 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION REACHED APPROXIMATELY 19.8 MMST; UP 1.0% WOW
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 19 December 14
HANDY: SOFTER TONE; PANAMAX: QUIET WEEK; CAPESIZE; PAINFUL WEEK
Handy
A softer tone for rates and volumes for the Supras, perhaps less apparent in the Pacific the last week before the season holidays and good ...
Thursday, 18 December 14
INDONESIA TO REVISE UP COAL OUTPUT TARGET TO 460 MILLION TONS IN 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian government has revised up its next year coal output forecast to 460 million tons from its previous forecast of 421 million ...
Wednesday, 17 December 14
CAPES RATES SLIPPED BELOW $5,600/DAY, FELL 84% YOY
COALspot.com: In the very rare occurrence when the BCI stands below the BDI, words to describe market sentiment are probably poor, said Intermodal ...
Wednesday, 17 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL SHANGHAI, SNP TEAM
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, we are all witness to the second hand market prices softening day by day. Any new deal surfacing t ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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