We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
 2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat differently. Adverse weather conditions in the US during winter were the dominant factor, creating a difficult first half of the year for the global economy. The developing and emerging markets continued on a downward trend, while a sunnier outlook from the US and Europe had the effect of moving the already more advanced economies forward.
The quantitative easing programme of the US Central Bank has now ended. This is a landmark in terms of recovery. Following a quadrupling of the US monetary base, unemployment has come down, the stock market has gone up and economic growth has become more robust. The UK has followed the same path as the US, with similar results. This is outstanding in the otherwise sluggish European economic development.
In Japan, “Abenomics” is facing headwinds caused by a hike in sales taxes and a subsequent return to recession. Japan’s economy has been stagnating for decades, and it is unlikely to move much further forward from this in 2015.
The slowing of the Chinese economy is adding uncertainty to the level of shipping demand generated in the Far East. Its soft landing seems to incur turbulence, with some indicators suggesting the official GDP data may not give us the full story.
Growth in emerging markets and developing economies is set for a comeback in 2015, with GDP-growth improving from 4.4% in 2014 to 5.0% in 2015. The advanced economies are likely to stay on the recovery track, and improve their GDP-growth to 2.3% in 2015 (1.8% in 2014). The common challenges remain poor inflation expectations, a lack of structural reforms and lack of job creation. There is clearly room for more political initiatives in 2015 to support the global economy.
Supply: A stalling orderbook means reality has hit home
The total orderbook remained unchanged during 2014. This signals that the industry is now realising that more new orders may not be the right thing to do after all.
The fundamental oversupply of capacity in all of the major shipping segments has not changed much over the past year. A higher level of demand has only just matched the net supply of new tonnage coming on stream.
Crude oil tankers are the only exception to the general status quo in the balance of freight markets. A multi-year low inflow of new crude oil tankers has stimulated earnings growth of some 20% compared to 2013. Meanwhile, the growing supply pressure in product tankers neutralised most of the growing demand side, with earnings coming in just a little shy of 2013.
Container ships keep getting bigger, breaking previous size records for both individual ships and the average size across the fleet. The CSCL Globe, with a capacity of 19,000 TEU, was launched in November, and the average TEU capacity of a 2014-newbuild increased to 7,400 TEU, up from 6,600 TEU in 2013. Next year the scheduled average is 8,000 TEU.
Looking forward to 2015, BIMCO expects the dry bulk fleet to have found a new “normal” level of supply side growth, expanding by 5.1% (5.5% in 2014). Regrettably, the level is still too high to reduce the glut of ships in the market. For tankers, BIMCO expects the dirty segment to grow by 1.7% (1.3% in 2014). Three years of low supply growth has led to more positive short-term prospects for crude oil tankers. In the clean segment, the estimated supply growth for 2015 is 4.6% (4.3% in 2014). Supply growth in the container ship segment is expected to drop to 5.8% in 2015 (6.2% in 2014).
Dry Bulk: New challenges await as demand slows down
BIMCO expects dry bulk demand to slow in 2015 to a rate of 4-5%. Iron ore demand will again be the centre of attention. In recent years, demand growth has been biased heavily towards the Capesize segment. In 2014, 70% of the total volume growth came from increased iron ore demand driven by China. BIMCO expects this trend to continue, with Capesizes outperforming the smaller sizes relatively.
The strong iron ore demand in 2014 was somewhat neutralised by weaker coal demand from China. Meanwhile, the Indonesian ban on exports of unprocessed bauxite and nickel ore resulted in a weak Supramax market in the Far East.
Towards the end of the year, the late arrival of strong exports of iron ore out of Brazil proved to be insufficient to deliver on the promise of 2013, when rates for all segments went up. While earnings had hit the floor in 2012, BIMCO expected 2014 to build on the optimism of 2013 and continue on the road to recovery. That did not materialise.
Tanker: what is the “new normal” demand level?
The crude oil tanker market started 2014 on a very positive note, with a five-year-high for earnings in the first quarter. The market’s strength showed clearly in early autumn and in the current winter market. The export of crude oil from West Africa has shifted from West to East as the US has reduced its imports to almost zero. This has given the demand side momentum, as West Africa now export more to the Far East, creating many more ton-miles.
For product tankers, the final quarter of 2014 contrasts greatly with the dull and flat market we have seen for most of the year. Despite US oil product export growth slowing down, it remains a positive story overall. Demand growth just managed to match supply growth, as the positive events arrived late in the year for the shipping market as well as in global economics.
Falling oil prices stirred some positive unrest in the tanker market, with rising tonnage demand in their wake. In spite of the price drop arising from weak oil demand and oversupply in the market, the current low and volatile commodity price is good for trading and shipping.
With a dramatic fall in bunker prices, it is vital for a continued industry recovery that all shipping segments resist higher speeds. Failure to do so may compromise improvement of the fundamental balance, which is essential to bring prosperity back.
Container: Will strong demand and slow steaming remain?
Strong demand growth on the large-volume trades from Far East to US and Europe has brought lower volatility in freight rates on key trades while re-activating most of the previously idle ships.
However, during peak season, the steep drop in freight rates on the Far East to Europe trade lane made it clear that the utmost care is constantly required for the supply side, while the introduction of ever-larger ships continues.
Improved industry earnings currently rest on one central requirement: slow steaming and defence of individual market share. This highly competitive market only returns a positive margin if the cost base is extremely low.
BIMCO expects containership supply to continue to grow at its “new normal” level of around 6%, making the demand side a focal point. European demand has been stronger than private consumption figures indicated, and we may well see further improvement for US demand. The US East Coast could build further on a remarkable year as the ports prepare for the imminent arrival of ultra-large container ships. Enlargement projects in the Panama Canal and Suez Canal will further influence the deployment of ships.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 10 February 15
IRON ORE MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN 2015: PRICE FORECAST $70/T - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: With January witnessing the price of iron ore falling to its lowest levels since May 2009, Roger Emslie, Principal Metals & ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ADVANCES 3.79% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 0.85 (+1.81%) month o ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK OVER WEEK, RAISING HOPES?
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.95 per MT (+1.91%) week over week and declined US$ 0.06 (-0.12%) ...
Monday, 09 February 15
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS BEST POSITIONED IN OVERSUPPLIED MARKET; US MINES MOST AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
In a 2015 global coal outlook report, Wood Mackenzie says that Australia and Indonesian coal suppliers will see some upside in the difficult months ...
Monday, 09 February 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP GAINS 3.65% TO ONE-MONTH HIGH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and day on day.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 2.1 ...
|
|
|
Showing 3206 to 3210 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
|
| |
| |
|
