We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
 2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat differently. Adverse weather conditions in the US during winter were the dominant factor, creating a difficult first half of the year for the global economy. The developing and emerging markets continued on a downward trend, while a sunnier outlook from the US and Europe had the effect of moving the already more advanced economies forward.
The quantitative easing programme of the US Central Bank has now ended. This is a landmark in terms of recovery. Following a quadrupling of the US monetary base, unemployment has come down, the stock market has gone up and economic growth has become more robust. The UK has followed the same path as the US, with similar results. This is outstanding in the otherwise sluggish European economic development.
In Japan, “Abenomics” is facing headwinds caused by a hike in sales taxes and a subsequent return to recession. Japan’s economy has been stagnating for decades, and it is unlikely to move much further forward from this in 2015.
The slowing of the Chinese economy is adding uncertainty to the level of shipping demand generated in the Far East. Its soft landing seems to incur turbulence, with some indicators suggesting the official GDP data may not give us the full story.
Growth in emerging markets and developing economies is set for a comeback in 2015, with GDP-growth improving from 4.4% in 2014 to 5.0% in 2015. The advanced economies are likely to stay on the recovery track, and improve their GDP-growth to 2.3% in 2015 (1.8% in 2014). The common challenges remain poor inflation expectations, a lack of structural reforms and lack of job creation. There is clearly room for more political initiatives in 2015 to support the global economy.
Supply: A stalling orderbook means reality has hit home
The total orderbook remained unchanged during 2014. This signals that the industry is now realising that more new orders may not be the right thing to do after all.
The fundamental oversupply of capacity in all of the major shipping segments has not changed much over the past year. A higher level of demand has only just matched the net supply of new tonnage coming on stream.
Crude oil tankers are the only exception to the general status quo in the balance of freight markets. A multi-year low inflow of new crude oil tankers has stimulated earnings growth of some 20% compared to 2013. Meanwhile, the growing supply pressure in product tankers neutralised most of the growing demand side, with earnings coming in just a little shy of 2013.
Container ships keep getting bigger, breaking previous size records for both individual ships and the average size across the fleet. The CSCL Globe, with a capacity of 19,000 TEU, was launched in November, and the average TEU capacity of a 2014-newbuild increased to 7,400 TEU, up from 6,600 TEU in 2013. Next year the scheduled average is 8,000 TEU.
Looking forward to 2015, BIMCO expects the dry bulk fleet to have found a new “normal” level of supply side growth, expanding by 5.1% (5.5% in 2014). Regrettably, the level is still too high to reduce the glut of ships in the market. For tankers, BIMCO expects the dirty segment to grow by 1.7% (1.3% in 2014). Three years of low supply growth has led to more positive short-term prospects for crude oil tankers. In the clean segment, the estimated supply growth for 2015 is 4.6% (4.3% in 2014). Supply growth in the container ship segment is expected to drop to 5.8% in 2015 (6.2% in 2014).
Dry Bulk: New challenges await as demand slows down
BIMCO expects dry bulk demand to slow in 2015 to a rate of 4-5%. Iron ore demand will again be the centre of attention. In recent years, demand growth has been biased heavily towards the Capesize segment. In 2014, 70% of the total volume growth came from increased iron ore demand driven by China. BIMCO expects this trend to continue, with Capesizes outperforming the smaller sizes relatively.
The strong iron ore demand in 2014 was somewhat neutralised by weaker coal demand from China. Meanwhile, the Indonesian ban on exports of unprocessed bauxite and nickel ore resulted in a weak Supramax market in the Far East.
Towards the end of the year, the late arrival of strong exports of iron ore out of Brazil proved to be insufficient to deliver on the promise of 2013, when rates for all segments went up. While earnings had hit the floor in 2012, BIMCO expected 2014 to build on the optimism of 2013 and continue on the road to recovery. That did not materialise.
Tanker: what is the “new normal” demand level?
The crude oil tanker market started 2014 on a very positive note, with a five-year-high for earnings in the first quarter. The market’s strength showed clearly in early autumn and in the current winter market. The export of crude oil from West Africa has shifted from West to East as the US has reduced its imports to almost zero. This has given the demand side momentum, as West Africa now export more to the Far East, creating many more ton-miles.
For product tankers, the final quarter of 2014 contrasts greatly with the dull and flat market we have seen for most of the year. Despite US oil product export growth slowing down, it remains a positive story overall. Demand growth just managed to match supply growth, as the positive events arrived late in the year for the shipping market as well as in global economics.
Falling oil prices stirred some positive unrest in the tanker market, with rising tonnage demand in their wake. In spite of the price drop arising from weak oil demand and oversupply in the market, the current low and volatile commodity price is good for trading and shipping.
With a dramatic fall in bunker prices, it is vital for a continued industry recovery that all shipping segments resist higher speeds. Failure to do so may compromise improvement of the fundamental balance, which is essential to bring prosperity back.
Container: Will strong demand and slow steaming remain?
Strong demand growth on the large-volume trades from Far East to US and Europe has brought lower volatility in freight rates on key trades while re-activating most of the previously idle ships.
However, during peak season, the steep drop in freight rates on the Far East to Europe trade lane made it clear that the utmost care is constantly required for the supply side, while the introduction of ever-larger ships continues.
Improved industry earnings currently rest on one central requirement: slow steaming and defence of individual market share. This highly competitive market only returns a positive margin if the cost base is extremely low.
BIMCO expects containership supply to continue to grow at its “new normal” level of around 6%, making the demand side a focal point. European demand has been stronger than private consumption figures indicated, and we may well see further improvement for US demand. The US East Coast could build further on a remarkable year as the ports prepare for the imminent arrival of ultra-large container ships. Enlargement projects in the Panama Canal and Suez Canal will further influence the deployment of ships.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 17 February 15
FOB SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP 8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 3.58 (+8.00%) month o ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
Q2' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $63.45; $ 1.85 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month, week on week and day on day.
The Q2 swap has ...
Monday, 16 February 15
COAL MINING SLUMP A BLESSING IN DISGUISE - THE JAKARTA POST
The growth of the coal-mining industry, which has diminished in the last two years, is expected to slump even further this year following weakening ...
Monday, 16 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.31 per MT (+2.59%) week over week and US$ 4.35 (+9.13%) month on ...
Monday, 16 February 15
Q2' 15 - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ROSE 5.22% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 2.88 (+5.22%) per MT month over month and US$ 1.08 (+1.90% ...
|
|
|
Showing 3191 to 3195 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
