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Monday, 29 December 14
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS: REGULATORY RISKS? - CLARKSONS
 In recent years, Chinese seaborne coal imports have surged, registering average growth of 67% p.a. between 2009 and 2013 to total 265mt. However, this trend has not continued in the year to date, with seaborne coal imports into China down 7% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2014. Meanwhile, this year, China has introduced several regulations which may limit coal imports even further.
Falling Imports
In January-October 2014, Chinese seaborne steam coal imports (including lignite) fell 2% y-o-y to 161.4mt, partly as favourable weather conditions contributed to a surge in domestic hydro-power output, which reduced reliance on coal-fired power. Meanwhile, the availability of landborne coking coal from Mongolia has risen this year, following supply disruptions in 2013, which has led to a fall in seaborne imports. Furthermore, slower growth in Chinese steel production has contributed to a 23% y-o-y fall in coking coal imports in the year to date. Indonesia and Australia supply most of China’s coal imports, accounting for 45% and 37% of imports during this period. In the year to date, the fall in imports from Indonesia has accounted for 79% of the decline in Chinese coal imports, while imports from Australia have risen steadily.
Regulatory Review
Additionally, the recent introduction of new regulations may be starting to have an impact on imports. In September, China’s NDRC requested that major power producers contribute to a 40mt cut in steam coal imports in the remainder of 2014, which has partly reduced coal import demand. In mid-October, China introduced a 3% tax on coking coal imports and a 5-6% tax on steam coal imports, following on from the 3% lignite import tax put in place in September 2013. Although the taxes are aimed at supporting China’s domestic coal industry, the ASEAN free trade agreement (FTA), as well as the recently negotiated China-Australia FTA, may limit the impact on imports going forward, given that Indonesia and Australia together account for almost 80% of Chinese coal imports.
Future Prospects
There are also further restrictions which may affect imports from 2015. The NDRC will place limits on the quality of coal allowed to be produced, imported and sold, with stricter restrictions on coal transported more than 600km from port of entry to place of consumption. More stringent limits will be placed on the sale and use of coal in major coal consuming regions.
Given these limits, it seems likely that imports from Australia may be most affected. While some miners have indicated that they will be able to “wash” coal in order to meet restrictions, it is clear that China is taking steps to improve air quality and support domestic coal producers.
As a result, Chinese coal imports are expected to fall in 2015, although the extent of the decline is not yet clear. Since China has driven most of the recent growth in coal trade, total expansion may be slower in the short-term, compared to the double digit growth recorded in recent years. As such, the balance of the global picture appears to be shifting to India, where there remains significant potential for strong import growth.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 15 February 15
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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