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Tuesday, 16 December 14
THIS PRICE IS A STEAL - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: Despite concerns that the slowdown of the Chinese economy would affect imports of iron ore, it seems that this has not been the case so far. The Chinese have been importing record volumes of iron ore throughout the year, taking advantage of softening prices, which touched their lowest level in five years a few days ago. Firm supply from Brazil and Australia has also supported this trend. Both producers, with a combined global market share of over 70%, have been steadily increasing their production post 2000, mainly guided by the mandate of accelerating Chinese appetite.
The boom of economic development in China has in turn made the country “the gift that keeps on giving” for mineral exporters across the globe. Big iron ore producers have been speeding up their sup-ply post 2000, mainly relying on what seemed as a race by China to match its infrastructure with its growth, but somewhere along the lines the fact that the gradual westernization of China, would at some point translate into deceleration of steel consumption was probably overlooked by the market, which brings us to today.
The growth of steel consumption in the country turned red for the first time in over two decades. The slowdown in property construction has quickly curbed the domestic need for steel and consequent-ly iron ore to a significant degree, which translated to excess production of steel as well as increasing iron ore stockpiles. In turn prices for both commodities started sliding, kick starting a vicious cycle of downward pressure.
From one hand, iron ore production was not tamed by the big ex-porters in order to support prices. As big miners in both Australia and Brazil have designed their production capacity around an economy of scale model, cutting down their production to match softening demand growth has not been an option to them, while this also gave them the means to start squeezing the bottom line of their Chinese competitors. At the same time, the Chinese themselves remained buyers of iron ore, enticed by the new attractive price levels they have long desired, with local steel producers remaining active de-spite the fact that domestic demand had started to scale back significantly. That led to surging exports, with cheap Chinese steel flooding the markets, further weighing on global prices.
In both iron ore and steel markets the prospects remain dim, with no evidence suggesting that a reversal is imminent. November was the second lowest month of the year in terms of Chinese iron ore imports, while the country’s exports of steel surged to a record high. Exhausting the stallion of the developing economies in the “becoming a developed country” race, means that in the not so distant future, China could see its growing appetite for growth linked commodities squeezed further. It is often said lately that India or other developing economies could step up to fill in the demand gap created by China, but let’s not forget that history doesn’t always repeat itself.
The truth is that the world in which China emerged as the big economy it currently is, is a very different place today. Developing economies nowadays cannot rely on developed ones to accelerate their growth in the same degree they used to, as most of the latter still struggle themselves with ailing growth, while at the same time and even most importantly, the belief that free trade is always affected during periods of economic crisis is becoming more evident these days. India has persistently tried to promote the “Make in India” and although the policy has met little success so far, Prime Minister Modi has made the idea of stop relying on imports for some of the most important commodities and start using domestic reserves, his personal goal.
My opinion is that more countries will try to protect their domestic production amidst evidence that the path out of the economic crisis now appears longer than what we originally thought it would be. In doing so, they will have to allow for ample room for protectionism measures to be applied, setting limits on quantity and/or price of imports, in order to support domestic production instead, which is exactly the opposite of what the extrovert in nature shipping industry needs.
Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
About the Author
Eva Tzima has experience of more than a decade as a financial analyst and has focused on the shipping industry through private equity projects as well as maritime stock analysis. Since 2012 she has been working as a Research analyst at Intermodal Shipbrokers Co., where she currently holds the position of Head of Research, focusing in the specific analysis of the SnP, Newbuilding and Demolition markets across the Dry Bulk, Tanker, Container and Gas Carrier sectors.
Previous to her current post she worked as an investment manager for a privately owned portfolio and in Trafalgar Asset Managers Ltd in London, mainly focusing in Private Equity Projects in the shipping, energy and aircraft sectors, as well as in Primary and Secondary Debt investments. During her employment in Trafalgar she acted as a director across a number of boards of entities affiliated to Trafalgar.
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 02 December 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS LOST MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has lost U ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL Q1' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 49.50
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.4 ...
Monday, 01 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 52.50
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.50 on 28 November after losing US$ 1.20 (-2.23%) month ove ...
Monday, 01 December 14
Q2' 15 DELIVERY CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED 0.42% LOWER THAN Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 2.45 (-3.78%) month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1.06%) we ...
Sunday, 30 November 14
SUPRAMAX COAL FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA : FIRM
COALspot.com: The BDI fell 171 points and closed at 1153 points on Friday 28 November 2014. The Cape index also lost 887 points and closed at 2151 ...
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Showing 3336 to 3340 news of total 6871 |
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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