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Tuesday, 16 December 14
THIS PRICE IS A STEAL - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: Despite concerns that the slowdown of the Chinese economy would affect imports of iron ore, it seems that this has not been the case so far. The Chinese have been importing record volumes of iron ore throughout the year, taking advantage of softening prices, which touched their lowest level in five years a few days ago. Firm supply from Brazil and Australia has also supported this trend. Both producers, with a combined global market share of over 70%, have been steadily increasing their production post 2000, mainly guided by the mandate of accelerating Chinese appetite.
The boom of economic development in China has in turn made the country “the gift that keeps on giving” for mineral exporters across the globe. Big iron ore producers have been speeding up their sup-ply post 2000, mainly relying on what seemed as a race by China to match its infrastructure with its growth, but somewhere along the lines the fact that the gradual westernization of China, would at some point translate into deceleration of steel consumption was probably overlooked by the market, which brings us to today.
The growth of steel consumption in the country turned red for the first time in over two decades. The slowdown in property construction has quickly curbed the domestic need for steel and consequent-ly iron ore to a significant degree, which translated to excess production of steel as well as increasing iron ore stockpiles. In turn prices for both commodities started sliding, kick starting a vicious cycle of downward pressure.
From one hand, iron ore production was not tamed by the big ex-porters in order to support prices. As big miners in both Australia and Brazil have designed their production capacity around an economy of scale model, cutting down their production to match softening demand growth has not been an option to them, while this also gave them the means to start squeezing the bottom line of their Chinese competitors. At the same time, the Chinese themselves remained buyers of iron ore, enticed by the new attractive price levels they have long desired, with local steel producers remaining active de-spite the fact that domestic demand had started to scale back significantly. That led to surging exports, with cheap Chinese steel flooding the markets, further weighing on global prices.
In both iron ore and steel markets the prospects remain dim, with no evidence suggesting that a reversal is imminent. November was the second lowest month of the year in terms of Chinese iron ore imports, while the country’s exports of steel surged to a record high. Exhausting the stallion of the developing economies in the “becoming a developed country” race, means that in the not so distant future, China could see its growing appetite for growth linked commodities squeezed further. It is often said lately that India or other developing economies could step up to fill in the demand gap created by China, but let’s not forget that history doesn’t always repeat itself.
The truth is that the world in which China emerged as the big economy it currently is, is a very different place today. Developing economies nowadays cannot rely on developed ones to accelerate their growth in the same degree they used to, as most of the latter still struggle themselves with ailing growth, while at the same time and even most importantly, the belief that free trade is always affected during periods of economic crisis is becoming more evident these days. India has persistently tried to promote the “Make in India” and although the policy has met little success so far, Prime Minister Modi has made the idea of stop relying on imports for some of the most important commodities and start using domestic reserves, his personal goal.
My opinion is that more countries will try to protect their domestic production amidst evidence that the path out of the economic crisis now appears longer than what we originally thought it would be. In doing so, they will have to allow for ample room for protectionism measures to be applied, setting limits on quantity and/or price of imports, in order to support domestic production instead, which is exactly the opposite of what the extrovert in nature shipping industry needs.
Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
About the Author
Eva Tzima has experience of more than a decade as a financial analyst and has focused on the shipping industry through private equity projects as well as maritime stock analysis. Since 2012 she has been working as a Research analyst at Intermodal Shipbrokers Co., where she currently holds the position of Head of Research, focusing in the specific analysis of the SnP, Newbuilding and Demolition markets across the Dry Bulk, Tanker, Container and Gas Carrier sectors.
Previous to her current post she worked as an investment manager for a privately owned portfolio and in Trafalgar Asset Managers Ltd in London, mainly focusing in Private Equity Projects in the shipping, energy and aircraft sectors, as well as in Primary and Secondary Debt investments. During her employment in Trafalgar she acted as a director across a number of boards of entities affiliated to Trafalgar.
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 30 December 14
INDIA INC TO BENEFIT AS IMPORTED COAL PRICES SET TO FALL - RAHUL PRITHIANI
The Hindu: India‘s coal import volumes are set to rise by over 30 per cent over the next two years to 214 million tonnes in 2015-16, as domes ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ALMOST FLAT AT -0.2%
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Monday, 29 December 14
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS: REGULATORY RISKS? - CLARKSONS
In recent years, Chinese seaborne coal imports have surged, registering average growth of 67% p.a. between 2009 and 2013 to total 265mt. However, t ...
Monday, 29 December 14
BULK MARKET ENDS YEAR ON SOUR NOTE, SHIPBROKER SEES 'BUMPY ROAD AHEAD' - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2014 was supposed to be the year that the dry bulk market would stage a comeback and a sustainable one for that matter. However, while for the most ...
Monday, 29 December 14
Q1'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $59.42
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3.51 (-5.58%) month over month and US$ 0.08 (-0.13%) ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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