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Monday, 24 November 14
CHOPPY WATERS IN DRY BULK - SGX

COALspot.com: Dry bulk freight rates have experienced a sharp rise in volatility in recent weeks as bulk commodity supply has ramped up, said SGX in its latest note.

SGX, Singapore Exchange represents the premier access point for managing Asian capital and investment exposure, and is Asia’s most international exchange with more than 40% of companies listed on SGX originating outside of Singapore.

SGX further said, the 30-day annualised volatility of the Baltic Dry Index has surpassed 50%, versus a Q3 average of 37%. This spike in volatility has been primarily driven by Capesize rates, with the Baltic Capesize Index 30-day annualised volatility averaging a staggering 138% so far this month.

According to SGX, year-to-date, the benchmark iron ore price has fallen 48% while thermal coal prices have also steadily declined through the course of the year.  Freight rates meanwhile have been extremely volatile, but on average holding well at higher levels.  As a result, freight rates have become a much more significant component of delivered iron ore and coal prices.

"In January 2014 for example, the C5 route (Western Australia to China) averaged less than 7% of the benchmark delivered iron ore price into China. At present, the same route makes up more than 13% of the delivered iron ore price. Falling bulk commodity prices have led freight to become a relatively more important consideration along the commodity value chain, and with volatility spiking, effective freight risk management tools have become all the more important," said SGX.

The dry bulk freight market is often subject to severe seasonality, with typically stronger demand through Q4. Iron ore, coal and steel account for about 60% of total dry bulk tonne-miles, according to Clarksons. Seasonality within the seaborne iron ore and thermal coal markets therefore has a significant impact on the dry bulk freight market, as noted by SGX.

SGX further said, Iron ore usually sees strong seaborne trade volumes during Q4 as producers look to maximise exports ahead of seasonal weather-related supply disruptions that often occur in Q1, while the Chinese steel industry typically restocks steelmaking raw materials ahead of the cold winter months/Chinese New Year. Over the past three years, Brazilian and Australian iron ore shipments have on average risen in Q4 (versus Q3) by 9% and 6%, respectively.  Thermal coal also usually experiences higher seaborne volumes towards year-end in anticipation of winter as power supply companies look to build inventory. In the past three years, Indonesian and Australian thermal coal exports have on average risen by 17% and 5% respectively in Q4.

With relatively inelastic supply in the dry bulk freight market, these seasonal demand fluctuations can lead to heightened price volatility, and in past years freight rates have often risen in Q4.  Indeed, recent prices rises in Capesize and Panamax rates are indicative of such seasonality. That said, uncertainty remains over whether we will see typical seasonal impacts sustained over the coming months. Reasons for such uncertainty and potentially unseasonal trends may include: (i) tight credit availability and ample iron ore port inventory in China, which may limit the degree of seasonal restocking; (ii) Chinese coal imports are declining, and government regulations appear supportive of this trend; and (iii) meteorologists are suggesting a high probability of an El Nino event this year, which may mean drier than usual weather in Australia and Indonesia, and potentially therefore lower than normal weather-related supply disruptions, concluded SGX.

According to SGX, it is managing both commodity & freight on one platform; capital efficiencies through margin optimisation

SGX uniquely provides effective risk management tools to manage both the underlying bulk commodity and freight rate exposures together on the same platform.  Furthermore, with all products on one platform SGX is able to offer highly competitive intra-commodity margin offsets. With a range of margin credits across different freight products as well as intra-commodity margin offsets between freight and iron ore, SGX provides a unique value proposition for the clearing of freight and bulk commodity derivatives.

For more details about SGX please click here to visit its official website.



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