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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
 COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a potentially positive credit impact for a number of Asia-Pacific sovereigns if the lower prices are sustained below USD90/bbl through 2015, in line with our latest forecast, says Fitch Ratings.
Most major Asian economies - including China, Japan, Korea and Thailand - would see an effective overall income boost from sustained lower oil prices. In addition, countries with large oil import needs facing external adjustment pressures such as Indonesia and India are among the best positioned to see a positive impact on sovereign credit profiles, although the broader policy response will matter too.
All but one of the Fitch-rated APAC sovereigns are net oil importers. Net oil import bills range significantly, from greater than 10% of GDP for Thailand to less than 2% for Bangladesh and Vietnam. Korea, Japan and China have net import bills of 6%, 3% and just over 2% of GDP, respectively.
For consumers, there would be a positive consumption effect from falling retail energy prices. Disinflation as a result of lower oil prices could also contribute to GDP growth less directly in some countries, by facilitating a more accommodative monetary policy than would otherwise be followed. Notably, several key Asian economies, including Japan, have been increasingly relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of their energy mix, and Asian LNG prices are linked to Brent crude.
A combined positive impact on fiscal accounts, economic growth and terms of trade, would be particularly beneficial for the sovereign credits of countries which are both net oil importers and facing external adjustment pressures, including Indonesia and India. Lower oil prices will help to ease the trade-offs faced by these economies as they aim to bolster growth while reducing external account deficits.
Beyond the macroeconomic growth effects, the fiscal impact could also be significant for several south and south-east Asian sovereigns. Both the Indian and Indonesian governments have already taken advantage of the price decline. In India, diesel prices were deregulated on 18 October. The direct impact on our headline fiscal forecasts is expected to be limited, while this will make the fiscal accounts more robust against future oil shocks, since both diesel and petrol prices are now determined by the market.
In Indonesia, the new administration under President Joko Widodo raised the administered price of fuel by over 30% on 18 November. Roughly 15% of total government spending (2.4% of GDP) is allocated to fuel subsidies, according to the state budget. In addition to direct effects on the state budget, the price hike provides a clear, positive signal of the new government's intentions to swiftly implement its reform agenda.
However, the extent to which sovereigns are able to realise the potential fiscal benefits will be determined at least partly by how policy makers respond - whether they use budget windfalls to increase spending or reduce deficits.
Fitch has lowered its forecast for the price of Brent Crude to average USD87/bbl through 2015 and USD90/bbl for 2016 as part of our latest forecasting round, down from our September forecasts of USD100/bbl and USD95/bbl, respectively.
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Friday, 14 November 14
MORE NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA TO HELP STABILISE CHINA PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings has said possible additional natural gas supplies from Russia's OAO Gazprom to China via the Altai pipeline would h ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
SLOWER AND LOWER HAS BEEN THE TREND OF THE PANAMAX IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Handy
We are experiencing an oversupply of tonnage in the Atlantic which is out numbering the amount of cargoes, Fearnleys broker says in its lat ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S REBOUND HINGES ON IRON ORE OVERSUPPLY ISSUES MOVING FORWARD - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
“One man’s benefit, is another man’s demise” is a phrase which can be used to describe today’s situation in the dry b ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
COAL MINISTER WANTS INDIA TO STOP COAL IMPORTS IN TWO OR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: India to ramp up coal production to a billion tonnes by 2019 from its current level of 490 million tones. According to Power and Coal ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
MODERN DRY BULK SHIPS' PRICES START FIRMING UP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While the main story of the past few weeks has been the rebound of the dry bulk market, which has been a result of increased Chinese iron ore impor ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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